Tue, Dec 31, 2013·Pepsi Center, Denver
Columbus Blue Jackets 3, Colorado Avalanche 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 112 | 114 | 112 | 338 |
| COL | 18 | 25 | 210 | 523 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:13CBJRyan JohansenAssists: Nick Foligno, R.J. Umberger · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–0
- P1 6:33COLJan HejdaUnassisted · Slap, 0.02 xG1–1
- P2 8:34CBJBoone JennerAssists: Blake Comeau, Jack Johnson · Wrist, 0.39 xG2–1
- P2 12:04COLJamie McGinnAssists: Matt Duchene, Ryan O'Reilly · Backhand, 0.19 xG2–2
- P2 14:42COLRyan O'ReillyPPAssists: Matt Duchene, Erik Johnson · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–3
- P3 8:10COLGabriel LandeskogPPGWGAssists: Paul Stastny, Nathan MacKinnon · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–4
- P3 8:47CBJNick FolignoAssists: R.J. Umberger, Ryan Johansen · Wrist, 0.30 xG3–4
- P3 18:57COLNathan MacKinnonPPAssists: Andre Benoit, Tyson Barrie · Tip-in, 0.18 xG3–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 11:57COLRyan Wilson: Holding2 min
- P2 3:58COLMax Talbot: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:26CBJJack Johnson: Elbowing2 min · PPG
- P3 6:46CBJDerek MacKenzie: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 11:24COLRyan Wilson: Hooking2 min
- P3 18:30CBJNick Foligno: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Anisimov won the faceoff against Duchene
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestUmberger – Foligno – Johansen8:31
xG 0.94–0.09 (92%)attempts 11–5goals 2–1
- Dubinsky – Anisimov – Atkinson7:48
xG 0.22–0.07 (75%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Letestu – Tropp – Jenner5:17
xG 0.10–0.04 (70%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- MacKenzie – Comeau – Skille4:00
xG 0.03–0.03 (52%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWisniewski – Murray15:42
xG 1.07–0.49 (69%)attempts 19–16goals 1–1
- Tyutin – Johnson19:17
xG 0.83–0.25 (77%)attempts 15–11goals 1–1
- Nikitin – Savard13:49
xG 0.57–0.14 (80%)attempts 15–4goals 1–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestMcGinn – O'Reilly – Duchene8:21
xG 0.33–0.17 (67%)attempts 9–7goals 2–0
- Stastny – O'Reilly – Landeskog2:13
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Mitchell – McLeod – Stastny3:13
xG 0.01–0.01 (42%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Talbot – Mitchell – McLeod5:10
xG 0.05–0.10 (32%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Sarich – Benoit14:04
xG 0.13–0.16 (45%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Wilson – Barrie11:41
xG 0.27–0.69 (28%)attempts 9–15goals 0–0
- Hejda – Johnson17:08
xG 0.40–1.54 (21%)attempts 8–25goals 1–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).