Tue, Dec 31, 2013·Honda Center, Anaheim
San Jose Sharks 3, Anaheim Ducks 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 017 | 28 | 111 | 336 |
| ANA | 18 | 325 | 25 | 638 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:24ANAKyle PalmieriAssists: Matt Beleskey, Cam Fowler · Tip-in, 0.02 xG0–1
- P2 0:35SJSDan BoylePPAssists: Joe Pavelski, Joe Thornton · Slap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 11:00ANAFrancois BeaucheminAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Jakob Silfverberg · Slap, 0.07 xG1–2
- P2 12:35SJSLogan CoutureAssists: Patrick Marleau, Marc-Edouard Vlasic · Snap, 0.30 xG2–2
- P2 14:59ANANick BoninoPPAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Cam Fowler · Tip-in, 0.17 xG2–3
- P2 18:30ANAMatt BeleskeyGWGAssists: Nick Bonino · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–4
- P3 1:14ANARyan GetzlafAssists: Corey Perry · Slap, 0.05 xG2–5
- P3 2:25ANAAndrew CoglianoSHAssists: Saku Koivu · Snap, 0.09 xG2–6
- P3 3:16SJSBracken KearnsPPAssists: Matt Irwin, Matt Nieto · Tip-in, 0.18 xG3–6
Penalties (12)
- P1 3:20SJSMike Brown: Fighting5 min
- P1 3:20ANAPatrick Maroon: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:38SJSMatt Irwin: Holding2 min
- P1 10:57ANADaniel Winnik: Holding2 min
- P1 19:45ANACorey Perry: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 12:02ANAFrancois Beauchemin: Holding2 min
- P2 12:02SJSMatt Nieto: Diving2 min
- P2 14:01SJSJames Sheppard: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 1:30ANAMatt Beleskey: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 10:06ANAMatt Beleskey: Slashing2 min
- P3 17:21ANAMatt Beleskey: Slashing2 min
- P3 17:43SJSJoe Thornton: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Couture
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestMarleau – Couture – Nieto6:14
xG 0.55–0.11 (84%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Kennedy – Kearns – Hamilton4:53
xG 0.13–0.03 (84%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Kennedy – Sheppard – Hamilton2:18
xG 0.06–0.02 (75%)attempts 2–1goals 0–1
- Brown – Desjardins – Sheppard5:29
xG 0.03–0.03 (50%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBoyle – Irwin8:53
xG 0.63–0.08 (89%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Vlasic – Demers6:27
xG 0.31–0.13 (71%)attempts 8–4goals 0–1
- Stuart – Braun4:28
xG 0.07–0.02 (81%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Perry – Silfverberg6:03
xG 0.34–0.04 (89%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Beleskey – Bonino – Palmieri8:19
xG 0.04–0.41 (10%)attempts 4–14goals 1–0
- Koivu – Winnik – Cogliano5:31
xG 0.09–0.47 (16%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- Selanne – Perreault – Maroon6:35
xG 0.03–0.44 (7%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLovejoy – Fowler7:18
xG 0.36–0.05 (88%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Allen – Vatanen9:56
xG 0.05–0.39 (12%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
- Beauchemin – Lindholm9:12
xG 0.12–0.74 (13%)attempts 2–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).