Tue, Dec 31, 2013·Jobing.com Arena, Glendale
Edmonton Oilers 3, Phoenix Coyotes 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 90% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 16 | 29 | 06 | 04 | 325 |
| PHX | 121 | 112 | 110 | 12 | 445 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:59PHXKeith YandleAssists: Derek Morris, Lauri Korpikoski · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 18:50EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsAssists: Taylor Hall, David Perron · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 0:25EDMDavid PerronAssists: Taylor Hall · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–1
- P2 6:44EDMJustin SchultzAssists: Taylor Hall · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–1
- P2 12:05PHXTim KennedyAssists: Martin Hanzal, Michael Stone · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–2
- P3 18:50PHXMikkel BoedkerAssists: Keith Yandle, Radim Vrbata · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–3
- OT 4:53PHXKeith YandleGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–4
Penalties (3)
- P1 8:05EDMDavid Perron: Interference2 min
- P3 12:02EDMDavid Perron: Slashing2 min
- OT 0:29PHXDerek Morris: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hanzal won the faceoff against Nugent-Hopkins
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- Smyth – Hemsky – Gordon11:38
xG 0.11–0.15 (43%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Perron – Hall – Nugent-Hopkins15:24
xG 0.62–1.07 (37%)attempts 15–20goals 3–0
- Joensuu – Gazdic – Lander7:13
xG 0.06–0.61 (9%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Gagner – Eberle – Horak10:30
xG 0.21–0.96 (18%)attempts 6–20goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestFerence – Petry3:46
xG 0.19–0.07 (74%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
- Schultz – Schultz3:26
xG 0.09–0.09 (50%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Marincin – Belov8:01
xG 0.37–0.65 (36%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestHalpern – Bissonnette – Chipchura4:09
xG 0.72–0.03 (96%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Vrbata – Hanzal – Kennedy7:04
xG 0.61–0.04 (94%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Vermette – Klinkhammer – Boedker11:21
xG 0.53–0.14 (79%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
- Ribeiro – Moss – Korpikoski4:49
xG 0.07–0.02 (81%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMorris – Yandle19:58
xG 1.52–0.38 (80%)attempts 27–17goals 1–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Murphy16:03
xG 1.09–0.48 (70%)attempts 20–11goals 0–2
- Schlemko – Stone13:34
xG 0.42–0.22 (66%)attempts 9–7goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHX's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHX is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 90% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHX − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).