Wed, Jan 1, 2014·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Tampa Bay Lightning 4, Vancouver Canucks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 011 | 314 | 18 | 433 |
| VAN | 011 | 29 | 010 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 11:25VANBrad RichardsonAssists: Chris Higgins · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 15:27TBLValtteri FilppulaAssists: Teddy Purcell, Alex Killorn · Snap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 15:47TBLTyler JohnsonAssists: Ondrej Palat, Mark Barberio · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–1
- P2 16:01VANZac DalpeAssists: Dale Weise, Tom Sestito · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–2
- P2 19:57TBLNikita KucherovPPGWGAssists: Radko Gudas, Matt Carle · Slap, 0.06 xG3–2
- P3 7:28TBLAlex KillornAssists: Victor Hedman, Valtteri Filppula · Deflected, 0.05 xG4–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 15:55TBLMatt Carle: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:26VANKevin Bieksa: Slashing2 min
- P2 9:13VANChris Higgins: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:58TBLJean-Philippe Cote: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 18:10VANYannick Weber: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johnson won the faceoff against Kesler
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestSt. Louis – Johnson – Palat10:47
xG 0.63–0.34 (65%)attempts 14–5goals 1–0
- Filppula – Purcell – Killorn12:44
xG 0.40–0.31 (56%)attempts 11–12goals 2–0
- St. Louis – Malone – Panik2:41
xG 0.08–0.03 (71%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Thompson – Kucherov – Brown8:37
xG 0.30–0.42 (42%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrewer – Cote3:26
xG 0.23–0.05 (82%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Cote – Hedman3:13
xG 0.18–0.01 (93%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Brewer – Sustr2:14
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestSestito – Dalpe – Weise6:48
xG 0.60–0.34 (64%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Richardson – Booth – Kassian9:28
xG 0.61–0.44 (58%)attempts 12–13goals 0–1
- Sedin – Sedin – Kesler2:07
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Higgins – Kesler – Santorelli9:00
xG 0.26–0.28 (48%)attempts 11–9goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestHamhuis – Weber2:32
xG 0.53–0.15 (78%)attempts 4–3goals 1–1
- Hamhuis – Tanev15:25
xG 0.73–0.47 (61%)attempts 14–13goals 1–1
- Weber – Garrison7:03
xG 0.31–0.12 (72%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).