Thu, Jan 2, 2014·TD Garden, Boston
Nashville Predators 2, Boston Bruins 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 08 | 116 | 111 | 00 | 235 |
| BOS | 011 | 03 | 210 | 11 | 325 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 18:04NSHViktor StalbergAssists: Mike Fisher, Shea Weber · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–0
- P3 4:55BOSJohnny BoychukAssists: Ryan Spooner, Matt Bartkowski · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P3 12:29BOSJarome IginlaAssists: Milan Lucic, David Krejci · Tip-in, 0.23 xG1–2
- P3 14:35NSHShea WeberAssists: Mike Fisher, Patric Hornqvist · Slap, 0.07 xG2–2
- OT 0:54BOSBrad MarchandGWGAssists: Patrice Bergeron, Dougie Hamilton · Wrist, 0.00 xG2–3
Penalties (3)
- P1 3:05NSHSeth Jones: Holding2 min
- P1 5:45BOSDaniel Paille: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:48NSHEric Nystrom: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Legwand won the faceoff against Krejci
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestFisher – Hornqvist – Wilson13:17
xG 0.69–0.19 (78%)attempts 14–12goals 1–0
- Legwand – Spaling – Smith9:10
xG 0.26–0.06 (82%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Hendricks – Gaustad – Nystrom10:04
xG 0.15–0.25 (38%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Cullen – Stalberg – Bourque8:48
xG 0.36–0.63 (36%)attempts 5–10goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Josi22:52
xG 1.43–1.00 (59%)attempts 26–22goals 2–1
- Klein – Ellis12:41
xG 0.16–0.23 (41%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
- Ekholm – Jones16:00
xG 0.20–0.49 (29%)attempts 9–21goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestIginla – Krejci – Lucic14:17
xG 0.78–0.71 (53%)attempts 11–14goals 1–0
- Campbell – Paille – Caron8:15
xG 0.19–0.14 (58%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Smith15:13
xG 0.45–0.57 (44%)attempts 25–13goals 0–1
- Soderberg – Fraser – Spooner9:19
xG 0.27–0.39 (41%)attempts 8–6goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestBoychuk – Bartkowski18:06
xG 0.62–0.35 (64%)attempts 15–16goals 1–0
- McQuaid – Bartkowski3:46
xG 0.24–0.07 (78%)attempts 2–3goals 1–0
- Chara – McQuaid2:39
xG 0.18–0.11 (62%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).