Thu, Jan 2, 2014·Verizon Center, Washington
Carolina Hurricanes 4, Washington Capitals 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 110 | 212 | 010 | 11 | 433 |
| WSH | 015 | 315 | 010 | 01 | 341 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:27CARJeff SkinnerPPAssists: Alexander Semin, Eric Staal · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–0
- P2 0:49WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Marcus Johansson, Karl Alzner · Snap, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 1:44CARManny MalhotraAssists: Drayson Bowman, Tuomo Ruutu · Snap, 0.08 xG2–1
- P2 3:02WSHTroy BrouwerAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Marcus Johansson · Backhand, 0.24 xG2–2
- P2 3:54WSHSteve OleksyAssists: Jay Beagle · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–3
- P2 4:34CARJeff SkinnerAssists: Ryan Murphy, Eric Staal · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–3
- OT 1:20CARJeff SkinnerGWGAssists: Ryan Murphy, Manny Malhotra · Tip-in, 0.08 xG4–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 1:20CARRon Hainsey: Holding2 min
- P1 11:44WSHMikhail Grabovski: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P1 12:22WSHBrooks Laich: High sticking2 min
- P2 9:28WSHAlex Ovechkin: High sticking2 min
- P2 16:25WSHJason Chimera: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestSemin – Staal – Skinner13:21
xG 0.58–0.36 (62%)attempts 14–12goals 1–0
- Dwyer – Gerbe – Staal13:03
xG 0.73–0.69 (52%)attempts 15–15goals 0–1
- Malhotra – Ruutu – Bowman3:36
xG 0.16–0.26 (38%)attempts 2–5goals 1–1
- Dvorak – Malhotra – Bowman3:38
xG 0.09–0.21 (29%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLiles – Murphy9:28
xG 0.47–0.36 (57%)attempts 7–10goals 2–0
- Hainsey – Bellemore19:52
xG 0.82–0.71 (53%)attempts 18–23goals 0–2
- Sekera – Faulk17:50
xG 0.46–0.99 (32%)attempts 15–23goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestFehr – Ovechkin – Grabovski14:25
xG 0.88–0.42 (68%)attempts 21–13goals 0–0
- Chimera – Erat – Ward6:36
xG 0.58–0.33 (64%)attempts 14–4goals 0–2
- Brouwer – Backstrom – Johansson13:05
xG 0.82–0.59 (58%)attempts 15–9goals 1–0
- Laich – Beagle – Wilson3:20
xG 0.06–0.14 (30%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestErskine – Oleksy13:03
xG 0.81–0.50 (62%)attempts 16–12goals 2–1
- Green – Orlov20:19
xG 1.09–1.00 (52%)attempts 24–20goals 0–0
- Alzner – Carlson14:13
xG 0.30–0.41 (42%)attempts 14–11goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).