Thu, Jan 2, 2014·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Winnipeg Jets 3, Ottawa Senators 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 113 | 110 | 112 | 335 |
| OTT | 210 | 010 | 29 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:34OTTMika ZibanejadAssists: Cory Conacher, Joe Corvo · Wrist, 0.25 xG0–1
- P1 15:37WPGDustin ByfuglienAssists: Anthony Peluso, James Wright · Slap, 0.03 xG1–1
- P1 19:13OTTMilan MichalekAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Cory Conacher · Wrist, 0.28 xG1–2
- P2 1:32WPGEvander KaneAssists: Jacob Trouba, Michael Frolik · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–2
- P3 6:42OTTZack SmithAssists: Marc Methot · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–3
- P3 11:29OTTClarke MacArthurGWGAssists: Kyle Turris · Wrist, 0.24 xG2–4
- P3 14:31WPGOlli JokinenAssists: Dustin Byfuglien, Toby Enstrom · Snap, 0.13 xG3–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 9:30OTTMatt Kassian: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:30WPGAnthony Peluso: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:52WPGDustin Byfuglien: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:32WPGAnthony Peluso: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:29OTTCory Conacher: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:29WPGJacob Trouba: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Smith won the faceoff against Little
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestFrolik – Kane – Scheifele14:21
xG 1.10–0.14 (88%)attempts 26–11goals 1–0
- Tangradi – Peluso – Wright6:38
xG 0.12–0.16 (42%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- Ladd – Wheeler – Little13:37
xG 0.14–0.50 (21%)attempts 10–13goals 0–1
- Jokinen – Thorburn – Setoguchi9:26
xG 0.23–1.47 (13%)attempts 3–15goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestEnstrom – Trouba17:31
xG 1.03–0.60 (63%)attempts 24–18goals 0–1
- Stuart – Bogosian15:15
xG 0.48–0.75 (39%)attempts 16–14goals 0–1
- Byfuglien – Ellerby14:54
xG 0.45–1.38 (25%)attempts 8–15goals 1–2
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestMichalek – Conacher – Zibanejad10:47
xG 1.28–0.34 (79%)attempts 15–8goals 2–0
- MacArthur – Ryan – Turris14:24
xG 0.60–0.75 (45%)attempts 12–14goals 1–1
- Greening – Condra – Smith14:09
xG 0.26–0.42 (38%)attempts 11–15goals 1–0
- Kassian – Stone – Pageau5:18
xG 0.16–0.37 (30%)attempts 2–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPhillips – Corvo14:11
xG 1.12–0.63 (64%)attempts 12–9goals 1–1
- Methot – Ceci13:55
xG 0.52–0.30 (63%)attempts 13–14goals 1–0
- Karlsson – Cowen21:13
xG 1.10–1.34 (45%)attempts 22–31goals 2–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).