Thu, Jan 2, 2014·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Los Angeles Kings 0, St. Louis Blues 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 013 | 011 | 06 | 030 |
| STL | 16 | 211 | 29 | 526 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:42STLBrenden MorrowPPGWGAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk, Alex Pietrangelo · Backhand, 0.33 xG0–1
- P2 11:41STLT.J. OshiePPAssists: Jaden Schwartz, Alex Pietrangelo · Wrist, 0.21 xG0–2
- P2 13:12STLT.J. OshieAssists: Vladimir Sobotka · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–3
- P3 3:24STLVladimir TarasenkoAssists: Magnus Paajarvi · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–4
- P3 6:11STLBarret JackmanAssists: Brenden Morrow, Derek Roy · Slap, 0.02 xG0–5
Penalties (10)
- P1 1:58LAKMatt Greene: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P1 9:01STLMaxim Lapierre: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 14:35STLVladimir Tarasenko: Interference2 min
- P2 0:24LAKJeff Carter: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:33LAKDwight King: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 13:37STLT.J. Oshie: Holding2 min
- P2 16:55STLChris Stewart: Boarding2 min
- P2 17:31STLVladimir Sobotka: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:30LAKMatt Frattin: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:08STLIan Cole: Holding the stick2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Berglund won the faceoff against Richards
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestLewis – Clifford – Nolan8:16
xG 0.18–0.04 (83%)attempts 12–3goals 0–1
- Carter – Kopitar – King9:05
xG 0.17–0.10 (62%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Stoll – Frattin – Toffoli7:52
xG 0.20–0.25 (44%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Williams – Brown – Richards7:46
xG 0.23–0.32 (42%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestRegehr – Greene6:40
xG 0.63–0.30 (68%)attempts 16–6goals 0–2
- Regehr – Voynov3:34
xG 0.07–0.03 (73%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Mitchell – Voynov12:07
xG 0.34–0.35 (49%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBerglund – Paajarvi – Tarasenko8:40
xG 0.29–0.11 (73%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Morrow – Roy – Stewart7:51
xG 0.38–0.26 (59%)attempts 5–11goals 1–0
- Lapierre – Porter – Reaves8:25
xG 0.19–0.08 (71%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Oshie – Sobotka – Schwartz10:26
xG 0.13–0.62 (17%)attempts 7–16goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestColaiacovo – Cole11:26
xG 0.41–0.18 (69%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
- Jackman – Shattenkirk11:22
xG 0.35–0.24 (59%)attempts 10–7goals 2–0
- Jackman – Cole2:41
xG 0.09–0.08 (55%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).