Thu, Jan 2, 2014·Pepsi Center, Denver
Philadelphia Flyers 1, Colorado Avalanche 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 09 | 111 | 010 | 130 |
| COL | 111 | 110 | 010 | 231 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:14COLJamie McGinnAssists: Matt Duchene, Erik Johnson · Wrist, 0.27 xG0–1
- P2 9:17COLRyan O'ReillyGWGAssists: Gabriel Landeskog · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–2
- P2 13:48PHIWayne SimmondsAssists: Andrej Meszaros, Scott Hartnell · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 5:53PHISean Couturier: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:13COLCody McLeod: Holding2 min
- P2 1:03PHISean Couturier: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:17COLCody McLeod: Delaying game2 min
- P3 5:46COLMax Talbot: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couturier won the faceoff against Duchene
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestHartnell – Simmonds – Schenn8:41
xG 0.32–0.06 (83%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Hall – Rosehill – Rinaldo4:00
xG 0.30–0.05 (85%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Giroux – Voracek – Raffl2:47
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Downie – Giroux – Voracek2:25
xG 0.04–0.03 (60%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMeszaros – Schenn11:01
xG 0.46–0.19 (70%)attempts 14–5goals 1–1
- Timonen – Coburn13:22
xG 0.62–0.55 (53%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
- Streit – Meszaros2:09
xG 0.10–0.84 (10%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestStastny – O'Reilly – Landeskog14:06
xG 1.21–0.25 (83%)attempts 19–10goals 1–0
- Talbot – McGinn – Duchene11:51
xG 1.03–0.35 (75%)attempts 14–8goals 1–1
- Bordeleau – Cliche – Malone6:06
xG 0.09–0.04 (68%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Mitchell – McLeod – MacKinnon11:34
xG 0.26–0.66 (28%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHejda – Johnson15:53
xG 1.12–0.42 (73%)attempts 22–11goals 0–0
- Sarich – Benoit10:13
xG 0.51–0.30 (63%)attempts 11–8goals 0–1
- Guenin – Holden12:25
xG 0.44–0.29 (61%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).