Fri, Jan 3, 2014·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
New York Rangers 2, Pittsburgh Penguins 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 08 | 014 | 213 | 235 |
| PIT | 29 | 28 | 111 | 528 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:09PITChris KunitzPPAssists: Sidney Crosby, Matt Niskanen · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–1
- P1 18:40PITJussi JokinenAssists: Brian Gibbons, Joe Vitale · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–2
- P2 1:09PITJussi JokinenGWGAssists: Brian Gibbons, Brandon Sutter · Backhand, 0.10 xG0–3
- P2 18:29PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Chris Kunitz, Brooks Orpik · Backhand, 0.05 xG0–4
- P3 7:43NYRMats ZuccarelloAssists: Benoit Pouliot, Derick Brassard · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–4
- P3 11:53NYRRyan McDonaghAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Dan Girardi · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–4
- P3 12:54PITChris KunitzAssists: Sidney Crosby, James Neal · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 11:11NYRRick Nash: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 15:15PITZach Sill: High sticking2 min
- P2 16:21PITJussi Jokinen: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:45PITTaylor Pyatt: Cross checking2 min
- P3 8:04NYRMats Zuccarello: High sticking2 min
- P3 16:17PITSidney Crosby: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:17NYRRyan McDonagh: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- Press play, or drag along the timeline.
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestRichards – Hagelin – Zuccarello10:11
xG 0.58–0.45 (56%)attempts 17–5goals 0–1
- Moore – Boyle – Dorsett2:18
xG 0.01–0.01 (42%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Nash – Stepan – Kreider11:23
xG 0.43–0.49 (47%)attempts 9–12goals 0–1
- Callahan – Pouliot – Brassard8:45
xG 0.10–0.19 (36%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Staal – Stralman11:10
xG 0.41–0.49 (45%)attempts 12–5goals 0–3
- Girardi – McDonagh16:22
xG 0.55–0.72 (43%)attempts 20–18goals 1–1
- Moore – Allen12:38
xG 0.27–0.47 (36%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestAdams – Pyatt – Vitale5:54
xG 0.54–0.20 (73%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Kunitz – Crosby – Neal13:36
xG 0.65–0.33 (66%)attempts 15–9goals 2–0
- Jokinen – Sutter – Gibbons7:04
xG 0.33–0.19 (64%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestNiskanen – Maatta11:21
xG 0.37–0.15 (70%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Scuderi – Bortuzzo9:10
xG 0.39–0.28 (58%)attempts 5–9goals 1–0
- Orpik – Despres11:31
xG 0.34–0.52 (40%)attempts 11–13goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).