Sat, Jan 4, 2014·TD Garden, Boston
Winnipeg Jets 1, Boston Bruins 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 19 | 019 | 09 | 137 |
| BOS | 110 | 212 | 17 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:54WPGDustin ByfuglienUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 14:06BOSDaniel PailleAssists: Torey Krug, Gregory Campbell · Snap, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 3:08BOSTorey KrugGWGAssists: Daniel Paille · Slap, 0.02 xG1–2
- P2 7:18BOSTorey KrugAssists: Adam McQuaid, Carl Soderberg · Tip-in, 0.01 xG1–3
- P3 9:59BOSReilly SmithAssists: Brad Marchand, Patrice Bergeron · Backhand, 0.42 xG1–4
Penalties (11)
- P1 0:22BOSZdeno Chara: Roughing2 min
- P1 3:16BOSZdeno Chara: Fighting5 min
- P1 3:16WPGChris Thorburn: Fighting5 min
- P1 3:18BOSMatt Fraser: Fighting5 min
- P1 3:18WPGJames Wright: Fighting5 min
- P1 3:31WPGJacob Trouba: Hooking2 min
- P1 5:51BOSDaniel Paille: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 19:15BOSDougie Hamilton: Slashing2 min
- P3 5:07WPGToby Enstrom: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:40BOSAdam McQuaid: Fighting5 min
- P3 13:40WPGMark Stuart: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Little
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestJokinen – Thorburn – Setoguchi11:22
xG 0.46–0.30 (61%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Tangradi – Peluso – Wright2:56
xG 0.18–0.13 (59%)attempts 5–3goals 0–2
- Frolik – Kane – Scheifele13:27
xG 0.78–0.83 (48%)attempts 16–16goals 1–0
- Ladd – Wheeler – Little12:02
xG 0.37–1.02 (27%)attempts 14–11goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestEnstrom – Bogosian4:07
xG 0.28–0.06 (83%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Stuart – Trouba2:23
xG 0.14–0.05 (75%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Stuart – Byfuglien2:13
xG 0.11–0.02 (83%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Smith10:44
xG 1.00–0.32 (76%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Iginla – Krejci – Lucic15:37
xG 1.10–0.65 (63%)attempts 21–19goals 0–0
- Campbell – Paille – Florek8:54
xG 0.27–0.19 (59%)attempts 7–10goals 1–0
- Soderberg – Fraser – Spooner7:33
xG 0.08–0.36 (17%)attempts 4–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBoychuk – Krug2:15
xG 0.44–0.08 (84%)attempts 3–2goals 1–1
- McQuaid – Krug10:03
xG 0.71–0.37 (66%)attempts 12–9goals 3–0
- Boychuk – Bartkowski14:06
xG 0.79–0.57 (58%)attempts 15–19goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).