Sat, Jan 4, 2014·Pepsi Center, Denver
San Jose Sharks 3, Colorado Avalanche 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 010 | 213 | 110 | 333 |
| COL | 18 | 39 | 04 | 421 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:28COLNathan MacKinnonPPAssists: Andre Benoit, Paul Stastny · Tip-in, 0.12 xG0–1
- P2 4:53COLJamie McGinnAssists: Matt Duchene · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–2
- P2 5:45COLErik JohnsonAssists: Gabriel Landeskog, Paul Stastny · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–3
- P2 5:59COLNathan MacKinnonGWGAssists: John Mitchell, Cody McLeod · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–4
- P2 8:35SJSJoe PavelskiPPAssists: Patrick Marleau, Joe Thornton · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–4
- P2 10:11SJSPatrick MarleauAssists: Jason Demers, Matt Nieto · Slap, 0.03 xG2–4
- P3 5:44SJSLogan CoutureAssists: Patrick Marleau, Scott Hannan · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–4
Penalties (11)
- P1 14:44SJSJustin Braun: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 0:23SJSJoe Thornton: Interference2 min
- P2 5:59COLCody McLeod: Roughing2 min
- P2 5:59SJSAndrew Desjardins: Slashing2 min
- P2 5:59SJSBracken Kearns: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:36COLMatt Duchene: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 7:59COLJan Hejda: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:24COLMax Talbot: Fighting5 min
- P2 13:24SJSAndrew Desjardins: Fighting5 min
- P2 18:14SJSJames Sheppard: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 15:58COLJan Hejda: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thornton won the faceoff against Duchene
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestMarleau – Couture – Nieto12:00
xG 0.92–0.31 (75%)attempts 15–5goals 1–1
- Desjardins – Kearns – Sheppard7:38
xG 0.14–0.16 (47%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Brown – McCarthy – Hamilton3:38
xG 0.03–0.05 (37%)attempts 4–3goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestHannan – Demers4:50
xG 0.50–0.13 (79%)attempts 6–5goals 0–2
- Hannan – Boyle6:25
xG 0.23–0.01 (97%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Stuart – Braun13:08
xG 0.45–0.29 (61%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestTalbot – McGinn – Duchene10:36
xG 0.70–0.47 (60%)attempts 6–10goals 1–1
- Mitchell – McLeod – MacKinnon9:47
xG 0.07–0.09 (43%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
- Bordeleau – Cliche – Malone4:17
xG 0.03–0.06 (32%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Stastny – O'Reilly – Landeskog12:13
xG 0.21–0.59 (27%)attempts 6–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHejda – Johnson15:31
xG 0.82–0.66 (55%)attempts 8–19goals 1–1
- Johnson – Holden2:42
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Benoit – Hejda2:00
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).