Sat, Jan 4, 2014·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
New York Rangers 7, Toronto Maple Leafs 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 218 | 316 | 216 | 750 |
| TOR | 07 | 111 | 08 | 126 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:57NYRCarl HagelinAssists: Dan Girardi, Ryan McDonagh · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–0
- P1 15:57NYRDominic MooreGWGUnassisted · Snap, 0.06 xG2–0
- P2 10:39NYRBenoit PouliotAssists: Marc Staal, Derick Brassard · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–0
- P2 14:39NYRChris KreiderAssists: Derek Stepan, John Moore · Backhand, 0.13 xG4–0
- P2 16:35NYRDominic MooreUnassisted · Wrist, 0.17 xG5–0
- P2 17:42TORJoffrey LupulAssists: Tyler Bozak, Morgan Rielly · Snap, 0.08 xG5–1
- P3 9:03NYRBrad RichardsAssists: Ryan Callahan, Carl Hagelin · Snap, 0.09 xG6–1
- P3 16:04NYRBrian BoylePPAssists: Michael Del Zotto, J.T. Miller · Tip-in, 0.15 xG7–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 17:34TORJay McClement: Holding2 min
- P1 17:34NYRDerick Brassard: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 4:04TORPaul Ranger: Cross checking2 min
- P3 9:36NYRJohn Moore: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:13TORDion Phaneuf: Slashing2 min
- P3 13:13TORDion Phaneuf: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P3 13:13NYRChris Kreider: Fighting5 min
- P3 15:33TORCody Franson: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Brassard won the faceoff against Bozak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestRichards – Callahan – Hagelin9:58
xG 1.32–0.16 (89%)attempts 13–5goals 2–0
- Nash – Stepan – Kreider9:40
xG 0.55–0.17 (76%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Pouliot – Brassard – Zuccarello11:34
xG 0.73–0.71 (51%)attempts 17–10goals 1–0
- Moore – Boyle – Miller8:13
xG 0.54–0.79 (41%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestDel Zotto – Moore15:38
xG 1.37–0.50 (73%)attempts 29–8goals 1–0
- Girardi – McDonagh17:41
xG 1.75–1.39 (56%)attempts 26–18goals 2–1
- Staal – Stralman16:28
xG 0.96–1.53 (39%)attempts 17–18goals 2–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestLupul – Kessel – Bozak4:14
xG 1.07–0.54 (67%)attempts 7–6goals 1–1
- Orr – Holland – D'Amigo2:23
xG 0.44–0.10 (82%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Lupul – Raymond – Kadri5:06
xG 0.59–0.37 (61%)attempts 5–9goals 0–1
- Kulemin – van Riemsdyk – Kadri3:50
xG 0.19–0.14 (57%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPhaneuf – Rielly2:57
xG 0.91–0.08 (92%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Ranger – Rielly13:25
xG 1.43–1.02 (58%)attempts 17–20goals 0–2
- Franson – Gardiner10:19
xG 0.58–0.44 (57%)attempts 9–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).