Sat, Jan 4, 2014·Centre Bell, Montreal
Ottawa Senators 4, Montréal Canadiens 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 314 | 07 | 012 | 11 | 434 |
| MTL | 110 | 07 | 212 | 00 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:13OTTColin GreeningAssists: Erik Condra, Zack Smith · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–0
- P1 11:32MTLDaniel BrièreAssists: Travis Moen, Douglas Murray · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–1
- P1 13:50OTTMark StoneAssists: Matt Kassian, Chris Phillips · Backhand, 0.14 xG2–1
- P1 14:04OTTErik CondraAssists: Marc Methot · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–1
- P3 1:57MTLDaniel BrièreAssists: Tomas Plekanec, Douglas Murray · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–2
- P3 4:46MTLBrian GiontaAssists: Daniel Brière, Tomas Plekanec · Wrist, 0.48 xG3–3
- OT 0:58OTTClarke MacArthurPPGWGAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Erik Karlsson · Wrist, 0.09 xG4–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 2:21OTTErik Condra: High sticking double minor4 min
- P1 5:37OTTClarke MacArthur: Tripping2 min
- P1 7:42MTLRene Bourque: Interference2 min
- P1 14:55OTTJared Cowen: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:48MTLBrendan Gallagher: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 12:44OTTMarc Methot: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 8:37MTLBrendan Gallagher: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 8:37OTTCory Conacher: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 19:41MTLP.K. Subban: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Smith won the faceoff against Eller
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestKassian – Stone – Pageau3:58
xG 0.29–0.14 (67%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- MacArthur – Ryan – Turris12:06
xG 0.88–0.87 (50%)attempts 12–12goals 0–1
- Michalek – Conacher – Zibanejad9:50
xG 0.27–0.30 (48%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
- Greening – Condra – Smith11:22
xG 0.30–0.59 (33%)attempts 12–6goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestPhillips – Ceci10:13
xG 1.12–0.53 (68%)attempts 14–9goals 1–1
- Methot – Gryba16:17
xG 0.39–0.55 (42%)attempts 17–10goals 2–0
- Karlsson – Cowen16:03
xG 0.60–1.29 (32%)attempts 13–17goals 0–2
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestBrière – Gionta – Plekanec8:23
xG 0.99–0.27 (78%)attempts 11–7goals 2–0
- Desharnais – Pacioretty – Gallagher13:40
xG 0.48–0.33 (60%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
- Bourque – Eller – Galchenyuk7:29
xG 0.29–0.14 (66%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Moen – Prust – Bournival3:16
xG 0.10–0.09 (53%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGorges – Subban13:14
xG 0.94–0.51 (65%)attempts 12–15goals 1–0
- Markov – Emelin14:31
xG 0.75–0.59 (56%)attempts 14–12goals 0–1
- Bouillon – Murray8:24
xG 0.18–0.07 (73%)attempts 5–7goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).