Sat, Jan 4, 2014·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Washington Capitals 3, Minnesota Wild 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 211 | 110 | 09 | 330 |
| MIN | 01 | 48 | 12 | 511 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:02WSHMarcus JohanssonPPAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom · Wrist, 0.46 xG1–0
- P1 12:15WSHMike GreenAssists: Jason Chimera, Joel Ward · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–0
- P2 2:16MINNino NiederreiterAssists: Charlie Coyle, Matt Cooke · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–1
- P2 6:56MINRyan SuterPPAssists: Mikko Koivu, Mikael Granlund · Slap, 0.07 xG2–2
- P2 7:38MINRyan SuterPPAssists: Mikko Koivu, Dany Heatley · Deflected, 0.02 xG2–3
- P2 13:50WSHMike GreenAssists: Brooks Laich · Deflected, 0.01 xG3–3
- P2 17:04MINJason ZuckerPPGWGAssists: Keith Ballard, Jonas Brodin · Deflected, 0.09 xG3–4
- P3 7:37MINRyan SuterAssists: Clayton Stoner · Snap, 0.07 xG3–5
Penalties (11)
- P1 10:37MINDany Heatley: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 14:17WSHTroy Brouwer: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:15WSHTroy Brouwer: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:15MINNate Prosser: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:29MINMatt Cooke: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 19:29WSHAlex Ovechkin: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 6:30WSHSteve Oleksy: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 6:35WSHKarl Alzner: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 15:32WSHMikhail Grabovski: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 5:30MINRyan Suter: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:42WSHJay Beagle: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestBrouwer – Backstrom – Johansson12:42
xG 0.20–0.02 (91%)attempts 12–2goals 0–0
- Fehr – Ovechkin – Grabovski9:30
xG 0.22–0.05 (82%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Erat – Beagle – Wilson3:31
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Chimera – Ward – Laich6:55
xG 0.14–0.03 (84%)attempts 8–1goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestErskine – Oleksy9:44
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–0goals 0–0
- Green – Orlov18:02
xG 0.39–0.27 (59%)attempts 24–9goals 2–1
- Alzner – Carlson14:02
xG 0.16–0.06 (74%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestHeatley – Koivu – Pominville10:17
xG 0.18–0.05 (79%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Cooke – Coyle – Niederreiter4:22
xG 0.08–0.06 (58%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
- Cooke – Brodziak – Mitchell2:57
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Heatley – Pominville – Granlund2:56
xG 0.01–0.02 (39%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Ballard – Stoner9:31
xG 0.20–0.19 (51%)attempts 7–13goals 0–2
- Scandella – Prosser12:41
xG 0.01–0.07 (16%)attempts 1–8goals 0–0
- Suter – Brodin18:09
xG 0.09–0.34 (21%)attempts 8–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).