Sat, Jan 4, 2014·Jobing.com Arena, Glendale
Philadelphia Flyers 5, Phoenix Coyotes 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 06 | 28 | 314 | 528 |
| PHX | 09 | 311 | 09 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:29PHXRob KlinkhammerAssists: Antoine Vermette, Mikkel Boedker · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P2 2:54PHXLauri KorpikoskiAssists: Connor Murphy, Martin Hanzal · Backhand, 0.22 xG0–2
- P2 3:11PHIScott HartnellAssists: Mark Streit · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–2
- P2 6:47PHXMikkel BoedkerAssists: Keith Yandle, Connor Murphy · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–3
- P2 17:15PHIBrayden SchennAssists: Vincent Lecavalier, Braydon Coburn · Wrist, 0.37 xG2–3
- P3 4:22PHIWayne SimmondsPPAssists: Jakub Voracek, Kimmo Timonen · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–3
- P3 11:52PHIJakub VoracekGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–3
- P3 19:29PHIClaude GirouxENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.54 xG5–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 7:57PHIWayne Simmonds: Hooking2 min
- P1 12:08PHXAntoine Vermette: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:50PHIZac Rinaldo: Elbowing2 min
- P1 18:16PHIZac Rinaldo: Slashing2 min
- P2 8:52PHIJay Rosehill: Fighting5 min
- P2 8:52PHXPaul Bissonnette: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:46PHXMichael Stone: Holding2 min
- P3 3:42PHXMartin Hanzal: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 16:31PHISteve Downie: Delaying game smothering puck2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hanzal won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestHall – Rosehill – VandeVelde2:51
xG 0.11–0.02 (83%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Lecavalier – VandeVelde – Couturier2:07
xG 0.10–0.09 (53%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Hartnell – Simmonds – Schenn10:40
xG 0.26–0.31 (46%)attempts 6–13goals 1–0
- Downie – Giroux – Voracek12:03
xG 0.22–0.34 (40%)attempts 10–9goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Streit – Grossmann14:06
xG 0.46–0.48 (49%)attempts 10–14goals 1–1
- Coburn – Grossmann2:17
xG 0.08–0.11 (43%)attempts 1–2goals 0–1
- Meszaros – Schenn11:55
xG 0.26–0.67 (28%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestVrbata – Korpikoski – Hanzal11:09
xG 0.55–0.18 (75%)attempts 14–8goals 1–1
- Doan – Ribeiro – Moss10:01
xG 0.32–0.16 (66%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Vermette – Klinkhammer – Boedker9:43
xG 0.65–0.55 (54%)attempts 11–10goals 1–1
- Halpern – Bissonnette – Chipchura2:57
xG 0.02–0.08 (22%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestYandle – Murphy16:09
xG 0.83–0.41 (67%)attempts 19–13goals 2–1
- Morris – Schlemko14:37
xG 0.51–0.30 (63%)attempts 14–8goals 1–1
- Klesla – Stone11:07
xG 0.41–0.34 (55%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHX's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHX is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHX − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).