Sun, Jan 5, 2014·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Tampa Bay Lightning 3, Edmonton Oilers 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 14 | 214 | 09 | 327 |
| EDM | 312 | 09 | 25 | 526 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:43TBLNikita KucherovPPAssists: Matt Carle, Radko Gudas · Slap, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 4:18EDMJordan EberleAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Taylor Hall · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P1 6:09EDMJordan EberlePPAssists: Sam Gagner, Ryan Smyth · Snap, 0.07 xG1–2
- P1 15:42EDMLuke GazdicAssists: Justin Schultz, Ryan Jones · Deflected, 0.14 xG1–3
- P2 8:47TBLVictor HedmanAssists: Ondrej Palat, Tyler Johnson · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–3
- P2 14:25TBLValtteri FilppulaAssists: Matt Carle, Teddy Purcell · Snap, 0.05 xG3–3
- P3 8:20EDMBoyd GordonGWGAssists: Ales Hemsky, Ryan Smyth · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–4
- P3 10:30EDMTaylor HallAssists: Andrew Ference, Sam Gagner · Tip-in, 0.10 xG3–5
Penalties (5)
- P1 0:52EDMJustin Schultz: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P1 4:39TBLAlex Killorn: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P2 15:56TBLEric Brewer: High sticking2 min
- P3 10:10EDMAles Hemsky: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:10TBLRyan Malone: Diving2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johnson won the faceoff against Nugent-Hopkins
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestSt. Louis – Johnson – Palat13:33
xG 0.92–0.71 (57%)attempts 21–12goals 1–1
- St. Louis – Malone – Panik3:37
xG 0.15–0.06 (73%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Filppula – Purcell – Killorn12:07
xG 0.40–0.36 (53%)attempts 11–10goals 1–1
- Thompson – Kucherov – Brown9:06
xG 0.34–0.34 (50%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCote – Hedman5:09
xG 0.37–0.08 (82%)attempts 11–1goals 0–0
- Salo – Hedman9:03
xG 0.63–0.43 (59%)attempts 15–7goals 1–1
- Salo – Carle2:04
xG 0.24–0.06 (80%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestGagner – Perron – Yakupov10:06
xG 0.45–0.28 (62%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Jones – Gazdic – Arcobello5:15
xG 0.07–0.04 (61%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Smyth – Hemsky – Gordon9:58
xG 0.13–0.40 (24%)attempts 3–10goals 1–1
- Eberle – Hall – Nugent-Hopkins12:49
xG 0.47–0.82 (37%)attempts 7–18goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Marincin13:49
xG 0.49–0.37 (57%)attempts 12–10goals 1–1
- Schultz – Hunt11:42
xG 0.26–0.49 (35%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
- Ference – Schultz17:22
xG 0.79–1.03 (43%)attempts 12–24goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).