Mon, Jan 6, 2014·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
Dallas Stars 3, New York Islanders 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 210 | 17 | 06 | 323 |
| NYI | 014 | 411 | 318 | 743 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:01DALJamie BennUnassisted · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 13:48DALErik ColeAssists: Alex Chiasson, Rich Peverley · Slap, 0.03 xG2–0
- P2 1:41NYIRyan StromePPAssists: Thomas Vanek, John Tavares · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–1
- P2 7:29NYIJohn TavaresAssists: Thomas Vanek · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–2
- P2 9:29NYIPeter ReginAssists: Josh Bailey, Thomas Hickey · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–3
- P2 15:28DALValeri NichushkinPPAssists: Rich Peverley, Ray Whitney · Snap, 0.16 xG3–3
- P2 19:32NYIBrock NelsonGWGAssists: Casey Cizikas, Calvin de Haan · Snap, 0.09 xG3–4
- P3 1:24NYIBrian StraitAssists: John Tavares, Calvin de Haan · Snap, 0.04 xG3–5
- P3 6:19NYIJohn TavaresPPAssists: Frans Nielsen, Andrew MacDonald · Backhand, 0.13 xG3–6
- P3 16:53NYIJohn TavaresPPAssists: Andrew MacDonald, Casey Cizikas · Snap, 0.17 xG3–7
Penalties (10)
- P1 10:20NYIThomas Vanek: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:24DALAntoine Roussel: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 13:33NYICasey Cizikas: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 15:57DALRyan Garbutt: Holding2 min
- P2 19:55NYIThomas Vanek: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:55DALJamie Benn: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:38NYICasey Cizikas: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 5:18DALRay Whitney: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 15:13DALAlex Chiasson: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 15:29DALRyan Garbutt: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cizikas won the faceoff against Eakin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- Benn – Seguin – Nichushkin11:00
xG 0.40–0.49 (44%)attempts 5–13goals 1–0
- Cole – Peverley – Chiasson7:16
xG 0.16–0.37 (30%)attempts 6–5goals 1–1
- Roussel – Eakin – Garbutt7:37
xG 0.28–0.50 (36%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Whitney – Horcoff – Fiddler9:20
xG 0.11–0.36 (24%)attempts 3–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Daley – Benn15:01
xG 0.30–0.51 (37%)attempts 10–12goals 1–0
- Gonchar – Connauton13:55
xG 0.31–0.66 (32%)attempts 6–13goals 0–1
- Goligoski – Dillon12:52
xG 0.43–0.85 (34%)attempts 6–12goals 1–2
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestVanek – Tavares – Nelson11:45
xG 0.77–0.48 (62%)attempts 16–7goals 2–0
- McDonald – Martin – Cizikas12:14
xG 0.36–0.14 (72%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Regin – Bailey6:42
xG 0.38–0.33 (53%)attempts 9–5goals 1–1
- Clutterbuck – Grabner – Strome7:40
xG 0.16–0.16 (49%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHickey – Donovan10:15
xG 0.67–0.12 (85%)attempts 13–3goals 2–2
- Hamonic – de Haan16:11
xG 0.60–0.36 (62%)attempts 20–8goals 0–0
- Strait – MacDonald11:31
xG 0.54–0.32 (63%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).