Tue, Jan 7, 2014·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
San Jose Sharks 2, Nashville Predators 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 07 | 110 | 111 | 228 |
| NSH | 010 | 313 | 05 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:35NSHDavid LegwandAssists: Craig Smith, Shea Weber · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P2 6:49SJSJoe PavelskiPPAssists: Dan Boyle, Jason Demers · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 7:16NSHMattias EkholmAssists: David Legwand · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 11:30NSHRoman JosiGWGAssists: Shea Weber, Colin Wilson · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–3
- P3 18:38SJSPatrick MarleauAssists: Matt Nieto, Jason Demers · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 0:10SJSJoe Thornton: Hooking2 min
- P1 8:57NSHMatt Cullen: Interference2 min
- P2 6:11NSHMattias Ekholm: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 13:38NSHNick Spaling: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 4:05NSHShea Weber: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:37SJSMike Brown: Delaying game2 min
- P3 9:37NSHRich Clune: Delaying game2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fisher won the faceoff against Pavelski
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestMarleau – Pavelski – Nieto9:15
xG 0.49–0.17 (75%)attempts 11–5goals 0–1
- Brown – McCarthy – Hayes7:27
xG 0.27–0.20 (57%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Desjardins – Sheppard – Hamilton12:01
xG 0.18–0.25 (42%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStuart – Demers9:28
xG 0.50–0.28 (64%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Boyle – Stuart3:19
xG 0.20–0.05 (80%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Stuart – Braun2:30
xG 0.06–0.04 (61%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestLegwand – Spaling – Smith10:32
xG 0.54–0.33 (62%)attempts 15–11goals 2–0
- Gaustad – Nystrom – Stalberg7:40
xG 0.20–0.04 (82%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Cullen – Hendricks – Clune4:11
xG 0.05–0.12 (28%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Fisher – Hornqvist – Wilson8:11
xG 0.25–0.36 (41%)attempts 6–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlein – Ellis12:05
xG 0.30–0.15 (67%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Weber – Josi15:19
xG 0.81–0.85 (49%)attempts 20–16goals 2–0
- Ekholm – Jones13:26
xG 0.11–0.27 (29%)attempts 4–12goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).