Tue, Jan 7, 2014·Jobing.com Arena, Glendale
Calgary Flames 0, Phoenix Coyotes 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 09 | 05 | 013 | 027 |
| PHX | 06 | 37 | 317 | 630 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:07PHXShane DoanGWGAssists: Mikkel Boedker, Mike Ribeiro · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P2 3:43PHXMartin HanzalAssists: Radim Vrbata, Lauri Korpikoski · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–2
- P2 12:40PHXMikkel BoedkerAssists: Mike Ribeiro, Connor Murphy · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–3
- P3 9:02PHXLauri KorpikoskiAssists: Martin Hanzal, Radim Vrbata · Wrist, 0.32 xG0–4
- P3 15:36PHXMichael StoneAssists: Lauri Korpikoski, Jeff Halpern · Slap, 0.01 xG0–5
- P3 18:38PHXRob KlinkhammerPPAssists: Michael Stone, Shane Doan · Wrist, 0.47 xG0–6
Penalties (9)
- P1 15:00PHXDavid Schlemko: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:19CGYMatt Stajan: Delaying game face off violation2 min
- P2 8:12PHXDavid Schlemko: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:21CGYJoe Colborne: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:26CGYBrian McGrattan: Misconduct10 min
- P3 15:26PHXPaul Bissonnette: Misconduct10 min
- P3 17:12PHXRostislav Klesla: Fighting5 min
- P3 17:12CGYTJ Galiardi: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P3 17:51CGYLance Bouma: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hanzal won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestStempniak – Byron – Monahan8:08
xG 0.24–0.12 (67%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Cammalleri – Hudler – Backlund8:13
xG 0.07–0.01 (83%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Westgarth – Galiardi – Colborne8:00
xG 0.17–0.21 (44%)attempts 10–5goals 0–2
- McGrattan – Stajan – Bouma6:47
xG 0.15–0.23 (39%)attempts 2–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestButler – Smith10:36
xG 0.55–0.28 (66%)attempts 10–13goals 0–1
- Wideman – Butler2:13
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Wideman – Smid14:23
xG 0.27–0.35 (43%)attempts 19–17goals 0–1
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestVrbata – Korpikoski – Hanzal12:40
xG 0.88–0.31 (74%)attempts 13–13goals 2–0
- Vermette – Moss – Klinkhammer7:58
xG 0.25–0.10 (72%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Doan – Ribeiro – Boedker6:54
xG 0.26–0.14 (64%)attempts 8–8goals 2–0
- Halpern – Moss – Chipchura2:28
xG 0.01–0.02 (38%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMorris – Yandle18:57
xG 0.61–0.16 (79%)attempts 22–9goals 2–0
- Klesla – Stone8:39
xG 0.21–0.15 (59%)attempts 15–9goals 1–0
- Schlemko – Murphy15:35
xG 0.83–0.77 (52%)attempts 11–19goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHX's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHX is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHX − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).