Tue, Jan 7, 2014·Rexall Place, Edmonton
St. Louis Blues 5, Edmonton Oilers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 114 | 310 | 16 | 530 |
| EDM | 07 | 28 | 03 | 218 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:46STLChris StewartPPAssists: Derek Roy, Jordan Leopold · Slap, 0.11 xG1–0
- P2 1:36EDMNail YakupovAssists: David Perron, Sam Gagner · Snap, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 2:18STLMaxim LapierreAssists: Ryan Reaves, Alex Pietrangelo · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–1
- P2 5:10EDMMark ArcobelloAssists: Luke Gazdic, Andrew Ference · Wrist, 0.25 xG2–2
- P2 10:56STLDavid BackesPPGWGAssists: Alex Pietrangelo · Snap, 0.06 xG3–2
- P2 13:57STLVladimir TarasenkoAssists: Jordan Leopold, Vladimir Sobotka · Wrist, 0.02 xG4–2
- P3 19:27STLPatrik BerglundENAssists: Vladimir Sobotka, Vladimir Tarasenko · Wrist, 0.60 xG5–2
Penalties (3)
- P1 11:28EDMNick Schultz: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 18:55EDMJeff Petry: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 9:30EDMRyan Jones: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gordon won the faceoff against Backes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestLapierre – Reaves – Paajarvi5:26
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–0goals 0–0
- Morrow – Lapierre – Reaves5:02
xG 0.21–0.14 (60%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- Sobotka – Berglund – Tarasenko14:07
xG 0.48–0.43 (53%)attempts 14–7goals 1–0
- Morrow – Roy – Stewart5:42
xG 0.02–0.17 (9%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBouwmeester – Pietrangelo19:26
xG 1.18–0.76 (61%)attempts 25–13goals 1–1
- Leopold – Cole15:26
xG 0.28–0.48 (36%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Jackman – Shattenkirk14:57
xG 0.18–0.63 (22%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestSmyth – Hemsky – Gordon6:36
xG 0.57–0.12 (83%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Gagner – Perron – Yakupov14:33
xG 0.36–0.22 (62%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Eberle – Hall – Nugent-Hopkins13:35
xG 0.54–0.45 (54%)attempts 8–15goals 0–0
- Smyth – Gordon – Arcobello2:57
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Marincin14:12
xG 1.13–0.41 (73%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Ference – Schultz21:22
xG 0.62–0.64 (49%)attempts 13–19goals 1–0
- Schultz – Marincin2:19
xG 0.00–0.16 (0%)attempts 0–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).