Tue, Jan 7, 2014·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Pittsburgh Penguins 5, Vancouver Canucks 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 113 | 17 | 212 | 03 | 1 | 535 |
| VAN | 08 | 110 | 38 | 00 | 0 | 426 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:15PITBrian GibbonsUnassisted · Backhand, 0.16 xG1–0
- P2 5:25PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: James Neal, Olli Maatta · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–0
- P2 15:35VANJason GarrisonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–1
- P3 7:39VANChris TanevAssists: Dan Hamhuis, Zack Kassian · Slap, 0.02 xG2–2
- P3 13:07VANChris HigginsAssists: Jannik Hansen, Yannick Weber · Backhand, 0.20 xG2–3
- P3 13:24VANZack KassianAssists: Chris Higgins, Kevin Bieksa · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–4
- P3 18:49PITKris LetangAssists: Jussi Jokinen, Sidney Crosby · Slap, 0.00 xG3–4
- P3 19:05PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Chris Kunitz, Jussi Jokinen · Wrist, 0.15 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. VAN Zack Kassian stopped
- 2. PIT Jussi Jokinen stopped
- 3. VAN Mike Santorelli stopped
- 4. PIT Sidney Crosby scored
- 5. VAN Chris Higgins stopped
Penalties (4)
- P1 10:35PITTaylor Pyatt: Interference2 min
- P1 15:15VANJason Garrison: Holding2 min
- P2 18:27PITSimon Despres: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:57VANTom Sestito: Charging2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Santorelli won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestKunitz – Crosby – Gibbons11:22
xG 0.64–0.22 (74%)attempts 11–14goals 1–2
- Jokinen – Malkin – Neal12:12
xG 0.82–0.59 (58%)attempts 17–10goals 0–0
- Pyatt – Glass – Sutter6:23
xG 0.09–0.03 (72%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Kunitz – Malkin – Crosby2:23
xG 0.00–0.20 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestScuderi – Letang13:27
xG 0.81–0.31 (73%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Orpik – Despres12:05
xG 0.63–0.29 (69%)attempts 15–11goals 0–1
- Niskanen – Letang2:01
xG 0.05–0.04 (54%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestSedin – Sedin – Santorelli13:23
xG 0.59–0.12 (83%)attempts 16–7goals 1–0
- Richardson – Hansen – Sestito8:46
xG 0.47–0.23 (67%)attempts 12–4goals 0–1
- Ferriero – Dalpe – Archibald3:15
xG 0.02–0.04 (31%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Higgins – Kesler – Kassian13:08
xG 0.45–0.98 (32%)attempts 11–16goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Corrado9:16
xG 0.33–0.17 (67%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- Hamhuis – Tanev19:01
xG 0.93–0.97 (49%)attempts 17–20goals 1–1
- Bieksa – Garrison18:32
xG 0.80–0.90 (47%)attempts 17–19goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).