Wed, Jan 8, 2014·United Center, Chicago
New York Rangers 3, Chicago Blackhawks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 29 | 012 | 111 | 332 |
| CHI | 015 | 211 | 011 | 237 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:06NYRBrad RichardsAssists: Ryan Callahan, Marc Staal · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 9:29NYRMats ZuccarelloPPAssists: Michael Del Zotto, Henrik Lundqvist · Wrap-around, 0.08 xG2–0
- P2 6:17CHIJonathan ToewsPPAssists: Patrick Sharp, Duncan Keith · Slap, 0.15 xG2–1
- P2 8:05CHIBrandon BolligAssists: Marcus Kruger · Snap, 0.06 xG2–2
- P3 14:03NYRCarl HagelinGWGAssists: Marc Staal, Brad Richards · Wrist, 0.36 xG3–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 8:01CHIBrandon Bollig: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 13:32NYRRyan McDonagh: Boarding2 min
- P2 5:00NYRDerick Brassard: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 2:21CHIMichal Rozsival: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 9:49NYRBenoit Pouliot: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Handzus won the faceoff against Boyle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestRichards – Callahan – Hagelin12:25
xG 0.66–0.38 (63%)attempts 12–11goals 2–0
- Moore – Boyle – Carcillo5:44
xG 0.13–0.22 (37%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
- Nash – Stepan – Kreider11:44
xG 0.36–0.64 (36%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- Pouliot – Brassard – Zuccarello11:04
xG 0.18–0.71 (20%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – Stralman18:45
xG 1.00–0.92 (52%)attempts 21–13goals 2–0
- Girardi – McDonagh16:44
xG 0.38–0.44 (46%)attempts 10–18goals 0–1
- Del Zotto – Moore12:11
xG 0.09–0.80 (10%)attempts 4–13goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestBickell – Shaw – Saad9:50
xG 0.93–0.49 (65%)attempts 15–6goals 0–1
- Versteeg – Kane – Kruger6:08
xG 0.44–0.14 (75%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Hossa – Sharp – Toews12:57
xG 0.33–0.24 (58%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Handzus – Smith – Bollig3:47
xG 0.02–0.13 (12%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOduya – Hjalmarsson17:03
xG 0.79–0.46 (63%)attempts 15–14goals 0–0
- Keith – Seabrook13:20
xG 0.53–0.22 (70%)attempts 15–7goals 0–1
- Rozsival – Leddy15:52
xG 0.86–0.78 (52%)attempts 13–14goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).