Wed, Jan 8, 2014·Pepsi Center, Denver
Ottawa Senators 3, Colorado Avalanche 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 111 | 212 | 09 | 00 | 332 |
| COL | 27 | 011 | 111 | 12 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:19COLJamie McGinnPPAssists: Erik Johnson, Nick Holden · Tip-in, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 4:54COLJan HejdaAssists: Gabriel Landeskog, Paul Stastny · Slap, 0.03 xG0–2
- P1 15:02OTTClarke MacArthurAssists: Bobby Ryan · Snap, 0.11 xG1–2
- P2 12:53OTTJason SpezzaPPAssists: Clarke MacArthur, Erik Karlsson · Tip-in, 0.18 xG2–2
- P2 14:18OTTKyle TurrisAssists: Mark Stone, Erik Karlsson · Slap, 0.03 xG3–2
- P3 17:40COLPaul StastnyAssists: Gabriel Landeskog, Tyson Barrie · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–3
- OT 0:33COLTyson BarrieGWGAssists: Paul Stastny, Gabriel Landeskog · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–4
Penalties (4)
- P1 1:06OTTCory Conacher: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 2:27COLTyson Barrie: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:06COLCory Sarich: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 12:14COLJan Hejda: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Turris won the faceoff against Duchene
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestMichalek – Conacher – Zibanejad10:32
xG 0.79–0.26 (75%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Kassian – Condra – Smith8:15
xG 0.18–0.10 (64%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Spezza – Greening – Stone9:54
xG 0.18–0.69 (21%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
- MacArthur – Ryan – Turris12:35
xG 0.43–1.34 (25%)attempts 13–15goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestPhillips – Ceci11:15
xG 0.89–0.63 (58%)attempts 13–10goals 0–1
- Karlsson – Cowen20:34
xG 0.83–1.17 (42%)attempts 26–16goals 2–0
- Methot – Gryba15:11
xG 0.26–0.70 (27%)attempts 11–15goals 0–1
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestMitchell – Stastny – Landeskog14:39
xG 0.76–0.23 (77%)attempts 17–9goals 2–0
- McGinn – Duchene – MacKinnon15:13
xG 1.22–0.79 (61%)attempts 19–22goals 0–1
- Van Der Gulik – Bordeleau – Malone4:53
xG 0.19–0.02 (92%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Talbot – McLeod – Cliche11:18
xG 0.00–0.31 (0%)attempts 1–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHejda – Johnson18:53
xG 1.83–0.95 (66%)attempts 24–23goals 1–0
- Sarich – Benoit12:54
xG 0.19–0.32 (38%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
- Holden – Barrie13:15
xG 0.10–0.29 (26%)attempts 7–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).