Thu, Jan 9, 2014·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Anaheim Ducks 4, Nashville Predators 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 06 | 418 | 04 | 428 |
| NSH | 26 | 18 | 012 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:52NSHPaul GaustadAssists: Gabriel Bourque, Viktor Stalberg · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–1
- P1 2:22NSHCraig SmithAssists: Matt Cullen, Matt Hendricks · Snap, 0.20 xG0–2
- P2 0:55ANARyan GetzlafAssists: Matt Beleskey · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
- P2 4:36ANARyan GetzlafAssists: Matt Beleskey · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–2
- P2 5:31NSHRich CluneAssists: Craig Smith, Matt Cullen · Tip-in, 0.18 xG2–3
- P2 6:27ANACorey PerryAssists: Ryan Getzlaf · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–3
- P2 18:52ANATeemu SelannePPGWGAssists: Patrick Maroon, Mathieu Perreault · Snap, 0.18 xG4–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 1:55ANAPatrick Maroon: Fighting5 min
- P1 1:55NSHRich Clune: Fighting5 min
- P1 4:29NSHGabriel Bourque: Holding2 min
- P1 15:26NSHViktor Stalberg: High sticking2 min
- P1 15:43ANANick Bonino: Holding2 min
- P2 17:07NSHGabriel Bourque: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 1:00NSHViktor Stalberg: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 3:13ANAFrancois Beauchemin: Slashing2 min
- P3 9:53ANAMathieu Perreault: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Getzlaf won the faceoff against Fisher
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Perry – Beleskey7:46
xG 0.38–0.11 (78%)attempts 10–5goals 3–0
- Koivu – Cogliano – Palmieri4:06
xG 0.33–0.06 (85%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Koivu – Winnik – Cogliano4:19
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Jackman – Bonino – Maroon2:36
xG 0.32–0.19 (63%)attempts 4–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLovejoy – Fowler11:41
xG 0.65–0.29 (69%)attempts 12–7goals 1–1
- Beauchemin – Lindholm10:10
xG 0.63–0.28 (69%)attempts 12–5goals 2–1
- Fistric – Vatanen7:40
xG 0.18–0.32 (36%)attempts 10–5goals 0–1
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestGaustad – Stalberg – Bourque8:05
xG 0.34–0.17 (66%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Cullen – Hendricks – Clune2:55
xG 0.00–0.20 (1%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Fisher – Nystrom – Wilson5:22
xG 0.06–0.40 (14%)attempts 3–10goals 0–3
- Legwand – Spaling – Smith6:32
xG 0.08–0.48 (14%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlein – Ellis9:28
xG 0.72–0.16 (82%)attempts 9–8goals 3–0
- Weber – Josi7:41
xG 0.06–0.20 (24%)attempts 4–8goals 0–2
- Ekholm – Jones10:36
xG 0.06–0.92 (6%)attempts 5–11goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).