Thu, Jan 9, 2014·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
St. Louis Blues 5, Calgary Flames 0
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 212 | 110 | 27 | 529 |
| CGY | 06 | 015 | 012 | 033 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:32STLChris StewartGWGAssists: Derek Roy, Brenden Morrow · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
- P1 11:37STLVladimir SobotkaAssists: Barret Jackman, Jaroslav Halak · Snap, 0.02 xG2–0
- P2 6:47STLIan ColeAssists: Vladimir Tarasenko · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–0
- P3 1:16STLPatrik BerglundPPAssists: Alex Pietrangelo, Kevin Shattenkirk · Tip-in, 0.20 xG4–0
- P3 3:32STLVladimir TarasenkoPPAssists: Jordan Leopold, Vladimir Sobotka · Snap, 0.04 xG5–0
Penalties (14)
- P1 4:25CGYLee Stempniak: Interference2 min
- P1 7:14CGYDennis Wideman: Cross checking2 min
- P1 13:41STLMaxim Lapierre: Interference2 min
- P1 13:41STLMaxim Lapierre: Roughing2 min
- P2 1:27STLBarret Jackman: Interference2 min
- P2 8:48STLBrenden Morrow: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:44STLT.J. Oshie: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:41CGYMatt Stajan: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 1:57CGYKevin Westgarth: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 5:52CGYMatt Stajan: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:52STLKevin Shattenkirk: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:08CGYDennis Wideman: Boarding2 min
- P3 15:22STLChris Stewart: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 18:47CGYBrian McGrattan: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backes won the faceoff against Stajan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBackes – Oshie – Schwartz7:42
xG 0.55–0.15 (78%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Lapierre – Reaves – Paajarvi7:10
xG 0.29–0.02 (94%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Sobotka – Berglund – Tarasenko4:41
xG 0.45–0.20 (69%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Morrow – Roy – Stewart6:53
xG 0.23–0.24 (49%)attempts 3–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestLeopold – Shattenkirk3:27
xG 0.32–0.03 (91%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Leopold – Cole6:32
xG 0.47–0.21 (69%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Jackman – Cole4:12
xG 0.23–0.05 (82%)attempts 6–6goals 2–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestStajan – Galiardi – Bouma5:09
xG 0.16–0.04 (79%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- McGrattan – Westgarth – Colborne5:59
xG 0.08–0.07 (53%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
- Hudler – Byron – Monahan7:26
xG 0.44–0.46 (49%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Cammalleri – Stempniak – Backlund7:03
xG 0.02–0.42 (4%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestO'Brien – Butler8:07
xG 0.26–0.08 (77%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Wideman – O'Brien2:46
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Smid – Butler4:01
xG 0.15–0.30 (32%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).