Fri, Jan 10, 2014·Verizon Center, Washington
Toronto Maple Leafs 2, Washington Capitals 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 013 | 112 | 19 | 234 |
| WSH | 012 | 19 | 214 | 335 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 6:39WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Mikhail Grabovski, Mike Green · Slap, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 9:08TORJames van RiemsdykPPAssists: Phil Kessel, Tyler Bozak · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–1
- P3 0:54TORPhil KesselAssists: James van Riemsdyk, Carl Gunnarsson · Snap, 0.08 xG2–1
- P3 4:36WSHNicklas BackstromUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–2
- P3 11:51WSHJoel WardGWGAssists: Marcus Johansson, Alex Ovechkin · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–3
Penalties (13)
- P1 10:00TORNikolay Kulemin: Holding2 min
- P1 13:40WSHAaron Volpatti: Cross checking2 min
- P2 4:01TORDion Phaneuf: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:01WSHJohn Erskine: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:01WSHJohn Erskine: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:20WSHMikhail Grabovski: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 10:03TORCarl Gunnarsson: Interference2 min
- P2 14:53WSHTom Wilson: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:53TORCarter Ashton: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:58WSHJohn Erskine: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:58TORColton Orr: Fighting5 min
- P2 17:17TORNikolay Kulemin: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:44TORDavid Clarkson: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McClement won the faceoff against Grabovski
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestMcClement – Clarkson – Kulemin9:24
xG 0.33–0.11 (76%)attempts 13–4goals 0–1
- Kessel – van Riemsdyk – Bozak14:14
xG 0.74–0.61 (55%)attempts 17–16goals 1–1
- Orr – Ashton – D'Amigo2:34
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Lupul – Raymond – Kadri11:18
xG 0.58–0.78 (43%)attempts 11–18goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPhaneuf – Gunnarsson12:40
xG 0.88–0.63 (58%)attempts 21–16goals 0–1
- Gardiner – Rielly9:45
xG 0.46–0.32 (59%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Gleason – Franson11:34
xG 0.55–0.79 (41%)attempts 10–18goals 1–2
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestBeagle – Volpatti – Wilson4:00
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Chimera – Fehr – Beagle2:20
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Laich – Brouwer – Backstrom11:28
xG 0.52–0.43 (55%)attempts 17–11goals 1–0
- Fehr – Ovechkin – Grabovski9:37
xG 0.35–0.31 (53%)attempts 7–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGreen – Orlov14:33
xG 0.89–0.66 (57%)attempts 22–16goals 2–0
- Erskine – Carrick12:04
xG 0.45–0.37 (55%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
- Alzner – Carlson14:20
xG 0.37–0.91 (29%)attempts 10–18goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).