Fri, Jan 10, 2014·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Pittsburgh Penguins 3, Edmonton Oilers 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 09 | 213 | 16 | 00 | 328 |
| EDM | 011 | 09 | 39 | 12 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:09PITJames NealAssists: Evgeni Malkin · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–0
- P2 7:55PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Brian Gibbons, Matt Niskanen · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–0
- P3 0:53EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsPPAssists: Jordan Eberle, Justin Schultz · Snap, 0.12 xG2–1
- P3 10:07EDMTaylor HallAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Sam Gagner · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–2
- P3 12:16PITKris LetangPPAssists: Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–2
- P3 18:01EDMAnton BelovAssists: Ales Hemsky, Mark Arcobello · Snap, 0.03 xG3–3
- OT 1:01EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsPPGWGAssists: Jordan Eberle, Justin Schultz · Snap, 0.27 xG3–4
Penalties (12)
- P1 5:33PITTaylor Pyatt: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:51EDMRyan Smyth: Holding2 min
- P1 18:37PITKris Letang: Illegal check to head2 min
- P2 18:13EDMSam Gagner: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:56PITEvgeni Malkin: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 18:56PITEvgeni Malkin: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:56EDMDevan Dubnyk: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:28EDMMartin Marincin: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:28PITJames Neal: Diving2 min
- P3 11:28EDMMartin Marincin: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 12:14EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins: Holding2 min
- P3 19:36PITBrandon Sutter: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Nugent-Hopkins
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestPyatt – Glass – Sutter9:48
xG 0.61–0.31 (66%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Malkin – Neal8:37
xG 0.23–0.18 (57%)attempts 5–7goals 1–0
- Kunitz – Crosby – Gibbons10:01
xG 0.44–0.38 (53%)attempts 12–7goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestOrpik – Bortuzzo11:13
xG 0.59–0.34 (64%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Niskanen – Maatta11:43
xG 0.38–0.30 (56%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Scuderi – Letang11:54
xG 0.36–0.31 (53%)attempts 8–10goals 1–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestSmyth – Jones – Gazdic6:19
xG 0.22–0.10 (67%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Hemsky – Gordon – Perron9:20
xG 0.24–0.26 (48%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Gagner – Hall – Nugent-Hopkins12:01
xG 0.33–0.47 (41%)attempts 6–11goals 1–1
- Eberle – Arcobello – Yakupov9:10
xG 0.30–0.66 (31%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestFerence – Schultz18:12
xG 0.69–0.55 (55%)attempts 17–17goals 1–1
- Petry – Belov2:20
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 1–0
- Petry – Marincin13:13
xG 0.37–0.39 (48%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).