Sat, Jan 11, 2014·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Tampa Bay Lightning 6, Philadelphia Flyers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 17 | 410 | 18 | 625 |
| PHI | 015 | 311 | 012 | 338 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:33TBLAlex KillornUnassisted · Snap, 0.11 xG1–0
- P2 5:21TBLTeddy PurcellAssists: Valtteri Filppula, Matt Carle · Snap, 0.03 xG2–0
- P2 6:44PHIJakub VoracekAssists: Claude Giroux · Snap, 0.15 xG2–1
- P2 7:28TBLRyan MaloneAssists: Nate Thompson, B.J. Crombeen · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–1
- P2 11:14PHIWayne SimmondsPPAssists: Scott Hartnell, Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.41 xG3–2
- P2 14:35PHIJakub VoracekAssists: Andrej Meszaros · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–3
- P2 15:41TBLValtteri FilppulaGWGAssists: Alex Killorn, Teddy Purcell · Backhand, 0.23 xG4–3
- P2 19:03TBLMartin St. LouisAssists: Tyler Johnson, Radko Gudas · Snap, 0.07 xG5–3
- P3 18:12TBLRyan MaloneENAssists: B.J. Crombeen, Matt Carle · Wrist, 0.56 xG6–3
Penalties (11)
- P1 7:56PHISteve Downie: Slashing2 min
- P1 13:39TBLRyan Malone: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:53TBLVictor Hedman: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 1:18PHISean Couturier: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:42TBLRyan Malone: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 10:42PHIBraydon Coburn: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:42TBLRyan Malone: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:47TBLB.J. Crombeen: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 15:09PHIScott Hartnell: Illegal check to head2 min
- P3 18:55PHISteve Downie: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 18:55TBLRadko Gudas: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couturier won the faceoff against Thompson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestThompson – Kucherov – Brown9:31
xG 0.79–0.18 (82%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Malone – Crombeen – Thompson4:37
xG 0.57–0.16 (78%)attempts 5–6goals 1–1
- Filppula – Purcell – Killorn8:57
xG 0.64–0.64 (50%)attempts 6–15goals 2–0
- St. Louis – Johnson – Palat12:32
xG 0.46–0.58 (45%)attempts 9–12goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestCarle – Gudas11:09
xG 0.79–0.57 (58%)attempts 9–14goals 4–0
- Hedman – Gudas2:09
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Brewer – Gudas3:14
xG 0.00–0.14 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestHartnell – Simmonds – Schenn13:13
xG 1.09–0.50 (69%)attempts 16–7goals 0–1
- Lecavalier – McGinn – Couturier4:35
xG 0.20–0.12 (64%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Giroux – Voracek – Raffl10:02
xG 0.57–0.54 (51%)attempts 15–5goals 1–0
- Hall – VandeVelde – McGinn3:39
xG 0.12–0.11 (52%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCoburn – Meszaros2:37
xG 0.46–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Timonen – Coburn9:31
xG 0.58–0.18 (76%)attempts 13–4goals 1–0
- Coburn – Grossmann2:03
xG 0.07–0.03 (72%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).