Sat, Jan 11, 2014·Centre Bell, Montreal
Chicago Blackhawks 1, Montréal Canadiens 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 07 | 08 | 15 | 00 | 120 |
| MTL | 010 | 112 | 012 | 14 | 238 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 12:54MTLAndrei MarkovAssists: Alexei Emelin, Michael Bournival · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P3 9:22CHIMarian HossaAssists: Jonathan Toews, Patrick Sharp · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–1
- OT 1:28MTLAndrei MarkovGWGAssists: Max Pacioretty · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 9:18CHIMichael Kostka: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:16CHINiklas Hjalmarsson: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:19MTLBrendan Gallagher: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:19CHIKris Versteeg: Fighting5 min
- P2 5:56CHIMichal Handzus: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:17MTLP.K. Subban: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Plekanec won the faceoff against Toews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestBickell – Kane – Kruger6:59
xG 0.42–0.18 (71%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Hossa – Sharp – Toews15:04
xG 0.70–0.64 (52%)attempts 11–17goals 1–0
- Smith – Bollig – Shaw3:42
xG 0.06–0.04 (62%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Handzus – Bickell – Smith2:25
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Seabrook18:06
xG 0.74–0.65 (53%)attempts 14–17goals 1–0
- Oduya – Hjalmarsson16:30
xG 0.71–0.66 (52%)attempts 14–12goals 0–1
- Kostka – Leddy12:34
xG 0.28–0.45 (39%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestBrière – Bourque – Eller9:29
xG 0.81–0.03 (96%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
- Parros – Prust – Bournival2:50
xG 0.07–0.12 (37%)attempts 2–3goals 1–0
- Gionta – Moen – Plekanec13:25
xG 0.40–0.58 (41%)attempts 13–9goals 0–1
- Desharnais – Pacioretty – Gallagher10:59
xG 0.23–0.50 (32%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMarkov – Emelin17:47
xG 1.25–0.35 (78%)attempts 21–13goals 1–0
- Murray – Diaz12:25
xG 0.46–0.18 (72%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Gorges – Subban17:26
xG 0.41–1.22 (25%)attempts 15–15goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).