Sat, Jan 11, 2014·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Ottawa Senators 2, Nashville Predators 1 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 07 | 19 | 05 | 00 | 2 | 221 |
| NSH | 010 | 16 | 011 | 06 | 0 | 133 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 6:23OTTKyle TurrisAssists: Cory Conacher · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–0
- P2 16:59NSHMike FisherAssists: Ryan Ellis, Seth Jones · Snap, 0.10 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. NSH Craig Smith stopped
- 2. OTT Mika Zibanejad scored
- 3. NSH David Legwand stopped
- 4. OTT Jason Spezza scored
Penalties (7)
- P1 9:32NSHViktor Stalberg: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:25OTTMika Zibanejad: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:00OTTColin Greening: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:00NSHEric Nystrom: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:57NSHRich Clune: Boarding2 min
- P2 15:57OTTJason Spezza: Roughing2 min
- OT 3:24OTTMarc Methot: Holding the stick2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Legwand won the faceoff against Turris
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- Greening – Condra – Pageau8:21
xG 0.15–0.21 (41%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Michalek – Conacher – Zibanejad12:15
xG 0.35–0.43 (45%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Spezza – Smith – Stone11:39
xG 0.32–0.42 (43%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- MacArthur – Ryan – Turris13:29
xG 0.49–0.70 (41%)attempts 17–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMethot – Ceci15:46
xG 0.67–0.56 (55%)attempts 15–17goals 1–0
- Karlsson – Cowen18:27
xG 0.47–0.61 (43%)attempts 19–11goals 0–0
- Phillips – Corvo15:10
xG 0.29–0.75 (28%)attempts 8–15goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestLegwand – Spaling – Smith13:43
xG 0.81–0.36 (69%)attempts 12–16goals 0–0
- Cullen – Hendricks – Bourque6:04
xG 0.12–0.06 (67%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Gaustad – Clune – Stalberg8:35
xG 0.19–0.17 (53%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Fisher – Nystrom – Wilson11:03
xG 0.21–0.31 (40%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Josi19:38
xG 1.08–0.52 (67%)attempts 18–20goals 0–0
- Ekholm – Jones14:33
xG 0.40–0.42 (49%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Klein – Ellis14:02
xG 0.29–0.39 (43%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).