Sat, Jan 11, 2014·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
Columbus Blue Jackets 6, Winnipeg Jets 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 06 | 412 | 28 | 626 |
| WPG | 17 | 112 | 112 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:32WPGEric O'DellAssists: Keaton Ellerby, Adam Pardy · Backhand, 0.43 xG0–1
- P2 0:36CBJMark LetestuSHAssists: Derek MacKenzie, Fedor Tyutin · Backhand, 0.18 xG1–1
- P2 4:15CBJCam AtkinsonAssists: James Wisniewski, Ryan Murray · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–1
- P2 8:26CBJNick FolignoAssists: Ryan Johansen, Jack Johnson · Snap, 0.31 xG3–1
- P2 9:07CBJBoone JennerGWGUnassisted · Snap, 0.32 xG4–1
- P2 11:55WPGToby EnstromAssists: Bryan Little · Slap, 0.02 xG4–2
- P3 4:08CBJBoone JennerAssists: Nathan Horton, Artem Anisimov · Wrist, 0.45 xG5–2
- P3 5:55WPGBryan LittlePPAssists: Andrew Ladd, Dustin Byfuglien · Backhand, 0.37 xG5–3
- P3 11:14CBJMark LetestuAssists: James Wisniewski, Derek MacKenzie · Wrist, 0.14 xG6–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 5:50CBJJames Wisniewski: Slashing2 min
- P1 15:38CBJMark Letestu: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:27CBJBrandon Dubinsky: Holding2 min
- P2 9:07WPGAdam Pardy: Penalty shot holding on breakaway0 min
- P2 14:07WPGAndrew Ladd: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:43CBJDalton Prout: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 5:55CBJJames Wisniewski: High sticking2 min
- P3 7:09WPGMichael Frolik: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 11:53WPGAndrew Ladd: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:00WPGAdam Pardy: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dubinsky won the faceoff against Jokinen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestDubinsky – Calvert – Atkinson9:56
xG 0.18–0.03 (87%)attempts 9–3goals 1–0
- Umberger – Foligno – Johansen7:02
xG 0.76–0.62 (55%)attempts 8–5goals 1–1
- Horton – Anisimov – Jenner9:30
xG 0.91–1.39 (39%)attempts 12–17goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestWisniewski – Murray10:50
xG 0.75–0.42 (64%)attempts 16–5goals 2–0
- Tyutin – Johnson11:32
xG 1.29–1.34 (49%)attempts 15–14goals 2–1
- Nikitin – Savard12:06
xG 0.12–0.55 (18%)attempts 4–12goals 0–1
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestFrolik – O'Dell – Scheifele10:37
xG 0.61–0.37 (63%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- Jokinen – Wheeler – Setoguchi9:03
xG 0.52–0.28 (65%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
- Thorburn – Tangradi – Wright5:05
xG 0.05–0.27 (16%)attempts 2–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEnstrom – Bogosian5:49
xG 0.68–0.07 (90%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Pardy – Ellerby9:22
xG 0.52–0.38 (58%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Stuart – Bogosian2:50
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).