Sat, Jan 11, 2014·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Pittsburgh Penguins 2, Calgary Flames 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 113 | 16 | 07 | 226 |
| CGY | 012 | 010 | 16 | 128 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:34PITChris KunitzAssists: Robert Bortuzzo · Snap, 0.05 xG1–0
- P2 6:42PITMatt NiskanenGWGAssists: Tanner Glass · Snap, 0.02 xG2–0
- P3 11:29CGYMikael BacklundPPAssists: TJ Brodie, Jiri Hudler · Slap, 0.03 xG2–1
Penalties (10)
- P1 4:41PITDeryk Engelland: Fighting5 min
- P1 4:41CGYBrian McGrattan: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:13PITJames Neal: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 9:29CGYMatt Stajan: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:23CGYLadislav Smid: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:49PITRobert Bortuzzo: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 3:11CGYSean Monahan: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:16PITEvgeni Malkin: Holding2 min
- P3 7:04PITRobert Bortuzzo: Match penatly 10 minutes10 min · PPG
- P3 9:29CGYMichael Cammalleri: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Monahan won the faceoff against Sutter
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestKunitz – Crosby – Gibbons2:23
xG 0.16–0.10 (62%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Malkin – Neal8:27
xG 0.21–0.28 (43%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Pyatt – Glass – Sutter4:49
xG 0.05–0.15 (25%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrpik – Bortuzzo11:22
xG 0.33–0.14 (70%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Orpik – Niskanen2:37
xG 0.05–0.09 (37%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Scuderi – Letang11:52
xG 0.11–0.27 (29%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestHudler – Byron – Monahan11:58
xG 0.38–0.25 (60%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Stajan – Galiardi – Bouma7:24
xG 0.10–0.03 (78%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Cammalleri – Stempniak – Backlund12:13
xG 0.33–0.26 (55%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- McGrattan – Westgarth – Colborne2:53
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestSmid – Butler10:22
xG 0.30–0.08 (80%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Giordano – Brodie12:32
xG 0.33–0.26 (56%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Giordano – Butler2:55
xG 0.09–0.07 (57%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).