Sun, Jan 12, 2014·Verizon Center, Washington
Buffalo Sabres 2, Washington Capitals 1 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 111 | 09 | 06 | 05 | 1 | 231 |
| WSH | 110 | 08 | 011 | 00 | 0 | 129 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:01WSHJason ChimeraAssists: Joel Ward, Connor Carrick · Tip-in, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 18:09BUFTyler EnnisPPAssists: Cody Hodgson, Christian Ehrhoff · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. WSH Eric Fehr stopped
- 2. BUF Matt Moulson stopped
- 3. WSH Alex Ovechkin stopped
- 4. BUF Linus Omark stopped
- 5. WSH Nicklas Backstrom stopped
- 6. BUF Cody Hodgson scored
Penalties (7)
- P1 12:02BUFZenon Konopka: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 17:28WSHTom Wilson: Charging2 min · PPG
- P2 7:38WSHJohn Carlson: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:03WSHTroy Brouwer: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:53WSHTroy Brouwer: High sticking2 min
- P3 1:30BUFMike Weber: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 19:07WSHNicklas Backstrom: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Ennis won the faceoff against Grabovski
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestKonopka – Ellis – Foligno8:15
xG 0.24–0.07 (78%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Moulson – Ennis – Girgensons11:31
xG 0.30–0.28 (51%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Ott – D'Agostini – Hodgson9:34
xG 0.11–0.29 (28%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Omark – Leino – Flynn9:57
xG 0.16–0.57 (22%)attempts 5–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEhrhoff – McBain2:03
xG 0.28–0.03 (90%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- McBain – McNabb11:49
xG 0.15–0.18 (45%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Ehrhoff – Pysyk14:35
xG 0.33–0.59 (36%)attempts 9–16goals 0–1
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestFehr – Ovechkin – Grabovski12:57
xG 0.55–0.21 (72%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Chimera – Ward – Johansson8:28
xG 0.37–0.13 (75%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Beagle – Volpatti – Wilson6:19
xG 0.07–0.10 (40%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Laich – Brouwer – Backstrom11:03
xG 0.12–0.27 (31%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGreen – Orlov17:45
xG 0.44–0.05 (90%)attempts 18–4goals 0–0
- Alzner – Carlson10:06
xG 0.46–0.11 (81%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
- Erskine – Carrick15:42
xG 0.36–0.61 (37%)attempts 9–19goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).