Sun, Jan 12, 2014·American Airlines Center, Dallas
New York Islanders 4, Dallas Stars 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 09 | 19 | 313 | 431 |
| DAL | 216 | 06 | 09 | 231 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:45DALRay WhitneyAssists: Alex Chiasson, Vernon Fiddler · Snap, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 18:12DALSergei GoncharUnassisted · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–2
- P2 10:47NYIKyle OkposoAssists: Thomas Vanek, John Tavares · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–2
- P3 15:44NYIKyle OkposoAssists: Calvin de Haan · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–2
- P3 18:36NYIJohn TavaresGWGAssists: Calvin de Haan, Thomas Vanek · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–2
- P3 19:08NYIBrock NelsonENAssists: Josh Bailey · Wrist, 0.57 xG4–2
Penalties (4)
- P1 12:03DALErik Cole: Holding2 min
- P1 14:25NYIColin McDonald: Charging2 min
- P2 13:04NYIAndrew MacDonald: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:38DALRyan Garbutt: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eakin won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestVanek – Okposo – Tavares17:13
xG 1.21–0.89 (58%)attempts 25–20goals 3–0
- Nielsen – Bailey – Nelson7:32
xG 0.23–0.16 (59%)attempts 17–4goals 0–1
- McDonald – Martin – Cizikas8:13
xG 0.13–0.57 (18%)attempts 4–12goals 0–1
- Clutterbuck – Grabner – Strome5:43
xG 0.03–0.62 (5%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDonovan – de Haan2:06
xG 0.21–0.05 (82%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Strait – de Haan2:55
xG 0.40–0.24 (63%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- MacDonald – de Haan3:24
xG 0.20–0.06 (76%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestRoussel – Eakin – Garbutt10:52
xG 0.51–0.44 (54%)attempts 12–14goals 0–2
- Cole – Benn – Seguin10:23
xG 0.44–0.40 (52%)attempts 12–16goals 0–0
- Horcoff – Peverley – Nichushkin7:59
xG 0.22–0.23 (48%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Whitney – Fiddler – Chiasson10:03
xG 0.57–0.83 (41%)attempts 10–10goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestBenn – Dillon16:19
xG 0.78–0.37 (68%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
- Gonchar – Connauton13:19
xG 0.75–0.87 (46%)attempts 13–23goals 2–0
- Daley – Goligoski17:37
xG 0.98–1.23 (44%)attempts 22–29goals 0–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).