Sun, Jan 12, 2014·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
New Jersey Devils 2, Toronto Maple Leafs 3 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 013 | 214 | 07 | 04 | 0 | 238 |
| TOR | 19 | 110 | 06 | 00 | 1 | 325 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:53TORTyler BozakAssists: Phil Kessel, Tim Gleason · Snap, 0.32 xG0–1
- P2 1:39NJDAdam HenriquePPAssists: Ryane Clowe, Andy Greene · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–1
- P2 5:56TORJames van RiemsdykPPAssists: Cody Franson, Phil Kessel · Wrist, 0.42 xG1–2
- P2 6:23NJDRyane CloweAssists: Marek Zidlicky, Eric Gelinas · Backhand, 0.08 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. TOR James van Riemsdyk scored
- 2. NJD Jaromir Jagr stopped
- 3. TOR Joffrey Lupul stopped
- 4. NJD Ryane Clowe stopped
- 5. TOR Tyler Bozak stopped
- 6. NJD Reid Boucher stopped
Penalties (8)
- P1 16:38TORDavid Clarkson: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:43TORNikolay Kulemin: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 3:08NJDJaromir Jagr: High sticking2 min
- P2 5:43NJDReid Boucher: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 8:56NJDAdam Henrique: High sticking2 min
- P2 11:53TORNazem Kadri: Interference2 min
- P2 15:16NJDBryce Salvador: High sticking2 min
- P3 14:06TORJoffrey Lupul: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bozak won the faceoff against Henrique
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestBernier – Gionta – Carter8:22
xG 0.50–0.11 (81%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
- Jagr – Zubrus – Zajac11:54
xG 0.40–0.03 (93%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Loktionov – Sislo – Boucher3:28
xG 0.10–0.08 (55%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Ryder – Clowe – Henrique9:55
xG 0.31–0.72 (30%)attempts 10–12goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestSalvador – Fayne3:37
xG 0.43–0.00 (100%)attempts 11–0goals 0–0
- Zidlicky – Gelinas5:31
xG 0.25–0.03 (90%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Zidlicky – Greene3:14
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestKessel – van Riemsdyk – Bozak11:28
xG 0.81–0.49 (62%)attempts 12–14goals 1–0
- Orr – Ashton – D'Amigo3:51
xG 0.02–0.05 (32%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- McClement – Clarkson – Kulemin10:34
xG 0.10–0.27 (27%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Lupul – Raymond – Kadri9:44
xG 0.11–0.35 (24%)attempts 5–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGleason – Franson10:34
xG 0.65–0.28 (70%)attempts 11–9goals 1–1
- Phaneuf – Gunnarsson12:26
xG 0.20–0.31 (40%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
- Gardiner – Rielly16:04
xG 0.28–0.74 (27%)attempts 8–26goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).