Sun, Jan 12, 2014·Honda Center, Anaheim
Detroit Red Wings 0, Anaheim Ducks 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 010 | 05 | 07 | 022 |
| ANA | 06 | 110 | 07 | 123 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 12:42ANAAndrew CoglianoGWGAssists: Saku Koivu, Kyle Palmieri · Tip-in, 0.13 xG0–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 0:40ANASaku Koivu: High sticking2 min
- P1 14:55ANASaku Koivu: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:27DETGustav Nyquist: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:51ANASaku Koivu: Holding2 min
- P2 8:21DETNiklas Kronwall: Interference2 min
- P2 13:41ANAPatrick Maroon: Roughing2 min
- P3 1:11DETDanny DeKeyser: High sticking2 min
- P3 10:45DETNiklas Kronwall: Slashing2 min
- P3 16:20ANATeemu Selanne: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Zetterberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestBertuzzi – Tatar – Sheahan6:45
xG 0.40–0.05 (90%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Zetterberg – Abdelkader – Nyquist15:08
xG 0.52–0.35 (59%)attempts 13–7goals 0–1
- Samuelsson – Miller – Andersson3:18
xG 0.02–0.10 (18%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Cleary – Eaves – Glendening4:54
xG 0.27–0.38 (42%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestQuincey – DeKeyser11:05
xG 0.66–0.32 (67%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Kronwall – Smith13:15
xG 0.60–0.35 (63%)attempts 19–9goals 0–1
- Kindl – Lashoff6:09
xG 0.18–0.05 (78%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestPerry – Penner – Bonino6:42
xG 0.60–0.21 (74%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Koivu – Cogliano – Palmieri5:54
xG 0.24–0.15 (62%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
- Winnik – Beleskey – Silfverberg5:11
xG 0.08–0.07 (51%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Perry – Beleskey – Bonino2:34
xG 0.05–0.15 (24%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Beauchemin – Lindholm13:57
xG 0.66–0.71 (48%)attempts 16–16goals 0–0
- Fistric – Vatanen8:47
xG 0.18–0.33 (36%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- Lovejoy – Fowler14:33
xG 0.17–0.66 (21%)attempts 6–15goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).