Mon, Jan 13, 2014·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Tampa Bay Lightning 2, Columbus Blue Jackets 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 09 | 212 | 07 | 228 |
| CBJ | 010 | 17 | 211 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:46CBJRyan JohansenAssists: Ryan Murray · Slap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P2 5:07TBLAlex KillornPPAssists: Matt Carle, Radko Gudas · Deflected, 0.14 xG1–1
- P2 6:04TBLVictor HedmanAssists: Tyler Johnson, Martin St. Louis · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–1
- P3 3:09CBJNathan HortonPPAssists: Jack Johnson, Artem Anisimov · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–2
- P3 17:22CBJMark LetestuPPGWGAssists: Jack Johnson, James Wisniewski · Tip-in, 0.15 xG2–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 4:28CBJBrandon Dubinsky: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:16TBLRadko Gudas: Cross checking2 min
- P1 16:18TBLRadko Gudas: Interference2 min
- P1 18:40TBLAndrej Sustr: Cross checking2 min
- P2 4:17CBJBrandon Dubinsky: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 10:41TBLVictor Hedman: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:11TBLJean-Philippe Cote: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 5:42CBJNathan Horton: Slashing2 min
- P3 12:18CBJFedor Tyutin: Holding2 min
- P3 16:32TBLTyler Johnson: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Anisimov won the faceoff against Thompson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestMalone – Crombeen – Thompson3:54
xG 0.35–0.18 (66%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Thompson – Kucherov – Brown6:38
xG 0.17–0.14 (56%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- St. Louis – Johnson – Palat9:06
xG 0.25–0.23 (52%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Filppula – Purcell – Killorn9:42
xG 0.23–0.63 (26%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrewer – Sustr5:01
xG 0.25–0.10 (71%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Brewer – Barberio3:57
xG 0.24–0.15 (61%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Hedman – Sustr2:12
xG 0.10–0.10 (50%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestDubinsky – Calvert – Atkinson9:58
xG 0.78–0.22 (78%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
- Umberger – Foligno – Johansen7:12
xG 0.38–0.07 (85%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Horton – Anisimov – Jenner6:16
xG 0.14–0.13 (52%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
- MacKenzie – Letestu – Tropp3:03
xG 0.04–0.36 (10%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNikitin – Savard17:27
xG 0.92–0.44 (68%)attempts 17–14goals 0–0
- Tyutin – Johnson11:42
xG 0.72–0.50 (59%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Wisniewski – Murray10:28
xG 0.42–0.33 (56%)attempts 12–7goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).