Tue, Jan 14, 2014·TD Garden, Boston
Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Boston Bruins 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 27 | 113 | 16 | 426 |
| BOS | 215 | 011 | 115 | 341 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:38BOSBrad MarchandAssists: Reilly Smith, Patrice Bergeron · Snap, 0.26 xG0–1
- P1 5:52TORTyler BozakAssists: Carl Gunnarsson, Phil Kessel · Snap, 0.30 xG1–1
- P1 10:48BOSPatrice BergeronAssists: Zdeno Chara, Brad Marchand · Wrap-around, 0.18 xG1–2
- P1 12:47TORTyler BozakPPAssists: James van Riemsdyk, Phil Kessel · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–2
- P2 7:09TORJake GardinerPPAssists: Phil Kessel, Dion Phaneuf · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–2
- P3 1:00TORJames van RiemsdykGWGAssists: Tyler Bozak, Joffrey Lupul · Snap, 0.04 xG4–2
- P3 9:35BOSGregory CampbellAssists: Daniel Paille · Backhand, 0.08 xG4–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 3:03BOSShawn Thornton: Fighting5 min
- P1 3:03TORFrazer McLaren: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:57BOSCarl Soderberg: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 1:37TORJames van Riemsdyk: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:50BOSAdam McQuaid: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 8:07TORTim Gleason: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:29BOSRyan Spooner: Holding2 min
- P3 4:00BOSZdeno Chara: Interference2 min
- P3 6:29TORCarl Gunnarsson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 12:07BOSMatt Bartkowski: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Bozak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- Raymond – Kessel – Kadri5:37
xG 0.24–0.20 (55%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Kessel – van Riemsdyk – Bozak5:17
xG 0.51–0.51 (50%)attempts 5–5goals 1–1
- Clarkson – Kulemin – Holland9:44
xG 0.32–0.33 (49%)attempts 8–13goals 0–1
- McClement – McLaren – Ashton2:30
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGleason – Franson13:53
xG 0.79–0.27 (75%)attempts 10–16goals 0–0
- Gardiner – Rielly10:31
xG 0.02–0.27 (8%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Gunnarsson14:25
xG 0.52–1.36 (27%)attempts 5–30goals 1–2
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Smith12:19
xG 1.17–0.02 (99%)attempts 24–1goals 2–0
- Thornton – Campbell – Paille3:07
xG 0.26–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–0goals 1–0
- Iginla – Krejci – Lucic13:00
xG 0.44–0.43 (51%)attempts 19–7goals 0–1
- Eriksson – Soderberg – Spooner7:47
xG 0.20–0.25 (45%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChara – Boychuk13:56
xG 0.88–0.49 (64%)attempts 19–7goals 2–1
- McQuaid – Bartkowski7:41
xG 0.33–0.08 (82%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Boychuk – Bartkowski4:01
xG 0.24–0.07 (78%)attempts 11–1goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).