Tue, Jan 14, 2014·BB&T Center, Sunrise
New York Islanders 2, Florida Panthers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 08 | 110 | 115 | 233 |
| FLA | 310 | 110 | 06 | 426 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:32FLAAleksander BarkovAssists: Brad Boyes · Snap, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 15:34FLADrew ShoreAssists: Krys Barch, Ed Jovanovski · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–2
- P1 19:24FLANick BjugstadGWGAssists: Scottie Upshall · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–3
- P2 15:59FLAScottie UpshallSHAssists: Brian Campbell, Ed Jovanovski · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–4
- P2 19:29NYIColin McDonaldAssists: Matt Martin, Calvin de Haan · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–4
- P3 2:38NYIThomas VanekAssists: Frans Nielsen, Kyle Okposo · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 1:59FLAJonathan Huberdeau: Holding2 min
- P1 5:57NYIMatt Carkner: Hooking2 min
- P1 6:43NYIFrans Nielsen: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 3:47NYICalvin de Haan: Holding2 min
- P2 14:55FLAMarcel Goc: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 17:26FLAJonathan Huberdeau: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:21NYICalvin de Haan: High sticking double minor4 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestMcDonald – Martin – Cizikas6:51
xG 0.40–0.12 (77%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Vanek – Okposo – Tavares17:21
xG 0.90–0.62 (59%)attempts 18–15goals 0–1
- Clutterbuck – Grabner – Strome5:24
xG 0.21–0.04 (84%)attempts 6–1goals 0–1
- Nielsen – Bailey – Nelson7:00
xG 0.24–0.11 (69%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHickey – Donovan2:26
xG 0.42–0.05 (90%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Carkner – Donovan2:21
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Donovan – de Haan9:29
xG 0.44–0.40 (52%)attempts 13–9goals 1–1
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestFleischmann – Upshall – Bjugstad8:51
xG 0.43–0.38 (53%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Barch – Matthias – Shore4:28
xG 0.10–0.11 (48%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
- Kopecky – Goc – Huberdeau6:19
xG 0.10–0.29 (26%)attempts 4–6goals 0–1
- Boyes – Bergenheim – Barkov14:15
xG 0.55–0.77 (42%)attempts 11–15goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Jovanovski – Gudbranson8:57
xG 0.31–0.35 (47%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Weaver – Kulikov12:25
xG 0.42–0.58 (42%)attempts 7–14goals 1–0
- Campbell – Gilbert18:34
xG 0.52–0.92 (36%)attempts 11–18goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).