Tue, Jan 14, 2014·United Center, Chicago
Colorado Avalanche 3, Chicago Blackhawks 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 29 | 06 | 010 | 11 | 326 |
| CHI | 013 | 116 | 115 | 04 | 248 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:58COLTyson BarrieAssists: Ryan Wilson, John Mitchell · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–0
- P1 16:00COLRyan O'ReillyPPAssists: Nick Holden, Jamie McGinn · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–0
- P2 8:12CHIJohnny OduyaAssists: Brandon Saad, Andrew Shaw · Tip-in, 0.19 xG2–1
- P3 7:27CHIAndrew ShawAssists: Brandon Saad, Marian Hossa · Wrist, 0.30 xG2–2
- OT 4:09COLTyson BarriePPGWGAssists: Matt Duchene · Slap, 0.18 xG3–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 0:10COLErik Johnson: Interference2 min
- P1 9:21COLGabriel Landeskog: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:50CHIKris Versteeg: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 16:04CHIMarian Hossa: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:33COLMax Talbot: Slashing2 min
- P2 1:28COLMatt Duchene: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:34COLJamie McGinn: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:26CHIPatrick Kane: Hooking2 min
- OT 3:34CHIJonathan Toews: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Duchene
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestMcGinn – O'Reilly – Duchene13:14
xG 0.78–0.13 (86%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Mitchell – McLeod – Cliche3:33
xG 0.01–0.03 (29%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Mitchell – Landeskog – MacKinnon6:12
xG 0.09–0.14 (40%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Talbot – McLeod – Cliche4:13
xG 0.42–0.67 (38%)attempts 2–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHejda – Holden6:13
xG 0.54–0.07 (89%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Wilson – Barrie11:31
xG 0.66–0.31 (68%)attempts 9–14goals 1–0
- Benoit – Barrie5:11
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 0–7goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Kruger – Bollig9:14
xG 0.33–0.13 (71%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Handzus – Bickell – Versteeg4:37
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Hossa – Sharp – Toews13:01
xG 0.52–0.64 (45%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Kane – Shaw – Saad11:14
xG 0.44–0.78 (36%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestRozsival – Leddy9:13
xG 0.88–0.03 (97%)attempts 12–3goals 1–0
- Oduya – Hjalmarsson16:57
xG 0.61–0.77 (44%)attempts 22–11goals 1–1
- Keith – Seabrook16:27
xG 0.62–0.86 (42%)attempts 18–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).