Tue, Jan 14, 2014·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Phoenix Coyotes 1, St. Louis Blues 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX | 04 | 19 | 08 | 121 |
| STL | 16 | 110 | 02 | 218 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:54STLT.J. OshieAssists: Alex Pietrangelo, David Backes · Slap, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 12:54STLT.J. OshiePPGWGAssists: David Backes, Kevin Shattenkirk · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–2
- P2 19:12PHXOliver Ekman-LarssonPPAssists: Keith Yandle, Mikkel Boedker · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
Penalties (6)
- P2 1:38PHXMichael Stone: Holding2 min
- P2 8:22STLBarret Jackman: Holding2 min
- P2 11:51PHXMichael Stone: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 16:32PHXRostislav Klesla: Cross checking2 min
- P2 17:44STLDavid Backes: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P3 8:45STLBrenden Morrow: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backes won the faceoff against Vermette
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestVermette – Korpikoski – Boedker4:57
xG 0.35–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Vrbata – Hanzal – Kennedy12:00
xG 0.71–0.38 (65%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Doan – Ribeiro – Boedker2:19
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Doan – Ribeiro – Moss5:19
xG 0.13–0.02 (88%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMorris – Ekman-Larsson18:41
xG 0.54–0.07 (89%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Klesla – Schlemko8:54
xG 0.88–0.49 (64%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Yandle – Stone17:15
xG 0.23–0.87 (21%)attempts 13–12goals 0–1
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBerglund – Paajarvi – Tarasenko11:05
xG 0.63–0.40 (61%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Cracknell – Reaves – Jaskin5:45
xG 0.04–0.07 (39%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Morrow – Roy – Stewart8:30
xG 0.18–0.30 (37%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- Backes – Oshie – Schwartz13:06
xG 0.21–0.39 (36%)attempts 5–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Bouwmeester – Pietrangelo19:32
xG 0.58–0.54 (52%)attempts 9–13goals 1–0
- Jackman – Shattenkirk15:16
xG 0.57–0.54 (51%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Polak – Cole11:39
xG 0.22–0.66 (25%)attempts 6–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it PHX. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − PHX), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).