Tue, Jan 14, 2014·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Calgary Flames 2, Nashville Predators 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 110 | 08 | 16 | 224 |
| NSH | 115 | 010 | 39 | 434 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:52NSHShea WeberPPAssists: Roman Josi, David Legwand · Slap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 18:56CGYLee StempniakAssists: Jiri Hudler, TJ Brodie · Wrist, 0.27 xG1–1
- P3 0:55NSHRyan EllisAssists: David Legwand, Kevin Klein · Slap, 0.10 xG1–2
- P3 2:40NSHCraig SmithPPGWGAssists: Nick Spaling, Seth Jones · Wrist, 0.40 xG1–3
- P3 10:52NSHViktor StalbergAssists: Ryan Ellis, David Legwand · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–4
- P3 13:07CGYMikael BacklundAssists: Mark Giordano, Jiri Hudler · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 5:27CGYMatt Stajan: Interference2 min
- P1 14:33CGYMatt Stajan: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 1:58CGYDennis Wideman: Holding2 min
- P2 7:50NSHMike Fisher: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:17CGYPaul Byron: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 3:52NSHShea Weber: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:05NSHSeth Jones: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:05CGYMikael Backlund: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fisher won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestHudler – Stempniak – Backlund12:49
xG 0.94–0.36 (72%)attempts 16–7goals 2–0
- Stajan – Galiardi – Bouma9:12
xG 0.43–0.51 (46%)attempts 10–13goals 0–1
- McGrattan – Westgarth – Street4:38
xG 0.08–0.27 (22%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Byron – Colborne – Monahan7:04
xG 0.10–0.42 (20%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Brodie15:35
xG 0.99–0.31 (76%)attempts 16–9goals 2–0
- Smid – Butler13:12
xG 0.44–0.58 (43%)attempts 12–13goals 0–1
- Wideman – O'Brien12:23
xG 0.18–0.58 (24%)attempts 8–17goals 0–1
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestFisher – Hornqvist – Wilson14:27
xG 0.67–0.50 (57%)attempts 13–17goals 0–1
- Legwand – Smith – Bourque7:40
xG 0.20–0.13 (60%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Hendricks – Gaustad – Stalberg7:52
xG 0.15–0.13 (53%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Cullen – Legwand – Smith2:01
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlein – Ellis12:46
xG 0.56–0.47 (54%)attempts 19–13goals 1–0
- Ekholm – Jones10:41
xG 0.12–0.17 (41%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Weber – Josi18:10
xG 0.73–0.94 (44%)attempts 10–21goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).