Tue, Jan 14, 2014·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Ottawa Senators 3, Minnesota Wild 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 115 | 08 | 29 | 332 |
| MIN | 03 | 010 | 014 | 027 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:06OTTClarke MacArthurPPGWGAssists: Kyle Turris, Erik Karlsson · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–0
- P3 5:55OTTErik CondraUnassisted · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–0
- P3 17:38OTTKyle TurrisPPAssists: Jared Cowen, Erik Karlsson · Slap, 0.03 xG3–0
Penalties (8)
- P1 8:07MINJustin Fontaine: Hooking2 min
- P1 11:40MINMikael Granlund: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 11:40MINMikael Granlund: High sticking2 min
- P2 11:34OTTJason Spezza: Slashing2 min
- P3 9:04MINJonas Brodin: Holding2 min
- P3 9:07OTTMilan Michalek: Interference2 min
- P3 12:39OTTKyle Turris: Hooking2 min
- P3 15:43MINRyan Suter: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Brodziak won the faceoff against Turris
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestKassian – Condra – Smith7:10
xG 0.33–0.11 (74%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Michalek – Conacher – Zibanejad8:20
xG 0.25–0.10 (71%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Spezza – Greening – Stone8:46
xG 0.22–0.18 (56%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- MacArthur – Ryan – Turris10:55
xG 0.19–0.46 (29%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMethot – Ceci12:59
xG 0.57–0.44 (56%)attempts 12–13goals 1–0
- Phillips – Wiercioch9:35
xG 0.21–0.12 (64%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Cowen18:11
xG 0.27–0.48 (36%)attempts 13–17goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestHeatley – Zucker – Coyle11:50
xG 0.29–0.22 (57%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Cooke – Brodziak – Fontaine9:24
xG 0.27–0.24 (53%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Pominville – Granlund – Niederreiter13:05
xG 0.22–0.32 (41%)attempts 11–11goals 0–1
- Veilleux – Mitchell – Haula5:33
xG 0.11–0.26 (30%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestScandella – Prosser12:04
xG 0.24–0.09 (74%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Stoner – Blum8:48
xG 0.41–0.27 (60%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Suter – Brodin20:33
xG 0.38–0.52 (42%)attempts 16–17goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).