Tue, Jan 14, 2014·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Edmonton Oilers 2, Dallas Stars 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 110 | 115 | 08 | 233 |
| DAL | 312 | 19 | 19 | 530 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:14DALErik ColeAssists: Trevor Daley, Jamie Benn · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 3:40EDMJustin SchultzAssists: Taylor Hall, Andrew Ference · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–1
- P1 8:35DALRyan GarbuttAssists: Ray Whitney, Kevin Connauton · Wrist, 0.43 xG1–2
- P1 10:22DALJamie BennPPGWGAssists: Tyler Seguin, Alex Goligoski · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–3
- P2 1:10DALCody EakinAssists: Antoine Roussel, Ryan Garbutt · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–4
- P2 10:28EDMSam GagnerPPAssists: Taylor Hall, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Backhand, 0.13 xG2–4
- P3 19:21DALTrevor DaleyENAssists: Ryan Garbutt · Wrist, 0.54 xG2–5
Penalties (5)
- P1 2:59DALBrenden Dillon: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:59EDMRyan Jones: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:45EDMSam Gagner: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 3:22DALErik Cole: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:30DALJamie Benn: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- Press play, or drag along the timeline.
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHemsky – Gordon – Perron9:07
xG 0.77–0.24 (76%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Smyth – Jones – Gazdic4:16
xG 0.25–0.11 (69%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Perron – Eberle – Arcobello5:23
xG 0.17–0.03 (85%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Eberle – Arcobello – Yakupov7:07
xG 0.20–0.58 (26%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Marincin17:16
xG 1.35–1.22 (53%)attempts 19–18goals 0–1
- Schultz – Belov12:08
xG 0.38–0.38 (50%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
- Ference – Schultz20:21
xG 0.74–1.22 (38%)attempts 19–17goals 1–2
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestCole – Benn – Seguin14:56
xG 1.50–0.72 (67%)attempts 22–16goals 1–1
- Horcoff – Peverley – Nichushkin10:08
xG 0.27–0.22 (55%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Roussel – Eakin – Garbutt11:02
xG 0.40–0.66 (38%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Whitney – Fiddler – Chiasson10:12
xG 0.12–0.89 (12%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGonchar – Connauton15:34
xG 0.71–0.52 (57%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
- Daley – Goligoski15:14
xG 0.76–0.63 (55%)attempts 12–15goals 1–1
- Benn – Dillon16:25
xG 0.51–0.98 (34%)attempts 18–22goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).