Wed, Jan 15, 2014·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
Washington Capitals 3, Pittsburgh Penguins 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 110 | 113 | 15 | 328 |
| PIT | 017 | 28 | 212 | 437 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:09WSHBrooks LaichSHAssists: Karl Alzner · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–0
- P2 9:53PITKris LetangAssists: Sidney Crosby, Tanner Glass · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 14:31WSHJason ChimeraAssists: Marcus Johansson, Dmitry Orlov · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–1
- P2 16:08PITTaylor PyattAssists: Olli Maatta, Jussi Jokinen · Snap, 0.14 xG2–2
- P3 8:35WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Marcus Johansson, Mike Green · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–2
- P3 11:35PITJussi JokinenAssists: Brandon Sutter, Matt Niskanen · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–3
- P3 18:06PITOlli MaattaGWGAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Matt Niskanen · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 12:48WSHJoel Ward: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:27PITNick Drazenovic: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:32WSHMike Green: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:02WSHJohn Erskine: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:02PITEvgeni Malkin: High sticking2 min
- P3 9:41WSHMike Green: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:02PITEvgeni Malkin: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestChimera – Ward – Johansson8:50
xG 0.43–0.19 (69%)attempts 5–6goals 1–1
- Beagle – Volpatti – Wilson6:19
xG 0.14–0.00 (97%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Laich – Ovechkin – Grabovski11:55
xG 0.52–0.54 (49%)attempts 14–15goals 0–0
- Fehr – Brouwer – Backstrom11:10
xG 0.45–0.49 (48%)attempts 15–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestAlzner – Carlson19:00
xG 1.03–0.61 (63%)attempts 26–16goals 0–2
- Green – Orlov15:13
xG 0.59–0.37 (61%)attempts 16–8goals 1–0
- Erskine – Carrick11:23
xG 0.15–0.45 (25%)attempts 5–13goals 0–1
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestPyatt – Jokinen – Malkin10:31
xG 0.33–0.04 (89%)attempts 12–4goals 2–0
- Kunitz – Crosby – Sutter11:07
xG 0.51–0.54 (49%)attempts 11–15goals 0–0
- Adams – Glass – Drazenovic6:43
xG 0.32–0.37 (46%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestOrpik – Bortuzzo13:46
xG 0.63–0.53 (54%)attempts 19–14goals 0–0
- Niskanen – Maatta12:43
xG 0.34–0.39 (46%)attempts 12–7goals 2–1
- Scuderi – Letang14:06
xG 0.49–0.73 (40%)attempts 7–18goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).