Thu, Jan 16, 2014·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Montréal Canadiens 5, Ottawa Senators 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 37 | 010 | 15 | 11 | 523 |
| OTT | 219 | 219 | 06 | 00 | 444 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:04MTLTomas PlekanecSHAssists: Travis Moen, Josh Gorges · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–0
- P1 14:05MTLMax PaciorettyPPAssists: David Desharnais, Andrei Markov · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–0
- P1 15:36MTLDavid DesharnaisAssists: Brendan Gallagher, Alexei Emelin · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–0
- P1 17:13OTTClarke MacArthurAssists: Erik Karlsson, Jared Cowen · Tip-in, 0.07 xG3–1
- P1 18:25OTTErik KarlssonAssists: Jason Spezza, Jared Cowen · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–2
- P2 17:16OTTBobby RyanAssists: Colin Greening · Snap, 0.06 xG3–3
- P2 18:40OTTKyle TurrisAssists: Clarke MacArthur, Erik Karlsson · Backhand, 0.11 xG3–4
- P3 11:02MTLTomas PlekanecAssists: Brian Gionta, Josh Gorges · Wrist, 0.18 xG4–4
- OT 0:23MTLP.K. SubbanGWGUnassisted · Snap, 0.13 xG5–4
Penalties (2)
- P1 1:35MTLRaphael Diaz: Cross checking2 min
- P1 12:58OTTMark Stone: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Turris won the faceoff against Plekanec
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestDesharnais – Pacioretty – Gallagher15:44
xG 1.54–0.61 (72%)attempts 19–11goals 1–1
- Gionta – Plekanec – Eller12:46
xG 0.33–0.21 (61%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Parros – Moen – Prust2:18
xG 0.13–0.15 (47%)attempts 3–2goals 0–1
- Gionta – Moen – Plekanec3:39
xG 0.05–0.08 (38%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMarkov – Subban3:11
xG 0.34–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Murray – Diaz9:43
xG 0.17–0.30 (36%)attempts 4–12goals 0–0
- Gorges – Diaz2:22
xG 0.00–0.14 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestSpezza – Greening – Stone9:32
xG 1.01–0.61 (62%)attempts 14–8goals 0–1
- MacArthur – Ryan – Turris12:37
xG 1.20–0.92 (57%)attempts 19–11goals 2–1
- Michalek – Conacher – Zibanejad11:47
xG 0.38–0.15 (72%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Greening – Condra – Smith5:01
xG 0.16–0.14 (53%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPhillips – Ceci17:22
xG 1.30–0.62 (68%)attempts 24–10goals 1–0
- Karlsson – Cowen22:46
xG 1.36–0.92 (60%)attempts 28–14goals 2–1
- Methot – Gryba13:15
xG 0.46–0.64 (42%)attempts 8–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).