Thu, Jan 16, 2014·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Los Angeles Kings 4, St. Louis Blues 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 110 | 07 | 314 | 431 |
| STL | 08 | 15 | 016 | 129 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:31LAKJake MuzzinAssists: Colin Fraser, Jordan Nolan · Snap, 0.02 xG1–0
- P2 5:55STLT.J. OshieUnassisted · Wrist, 0.32 xG1–1
- P3 2:04LAKTrevor LewisGWGAssists: Slava Voynov, Jonathan Quick · Tip-in, 0.40 xG2–1
- P3 4:21LAKTrevor LewisSHAssists: Drew Doughty, Jarret Stoll · Wrap-around, 0.06 xG3–1
- P3 19:04LAKJeff CarterENAssists: Anze Kopitar, Slava Voynov · Wrist, 0.62 xG4–1
Penalties (20)
- P1 1:20STLBarret Jackman: Fighting5 min
- P1 1:20LAKRobyn Regehr: Fighting5 min
- P1 4:22STLAlex Pietrangelo: High sticking2 min
- P1 7:17LAKJarret Stoll: Holding2 min
- P1 10:03STLT.J. Oshie: Interference2 min
- P2 1:06STLDmitrij Jaskin: Holding2 min
- P2 5:55LAKJake Muzzin: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P2 10:37STLDavid Backes: Holding2 min
- P2 10:37LAKMike Richards: Diving2 min
- P2 14:02STLBrenden Morrow: Cross checking2 min
- P2 0:00STLRyan Reaves: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:11LAKJeff Carter: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:21LAKWillie Mitchell: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P3 17:36LAKJake Muzzin: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:36STLVladimir Tarasenko: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:28LAKColin Fraser: Holding2 min
- P3 19:54LAKJake Muzzin: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:54STLVladimir Sobotka: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:54STLChris Stewart: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:54STLChris Stewart: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Backes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestStoll – Lewis – King9:20
xG 0.79–0.46 (63%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- Fraser – Clifford – Nolan6:35
xG 0.15–0.09 (63%)attempts 3–4goals 1–0
- Williams – Richards – Frattin7:49
xG 0.32–0.30 (52%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Carter – Brown – Kopitar8:07
xG 0.21–0.21 (51%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMitchell – Doughty2:38
xG 0.54–0.02 (97%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Mitchell – Voynov7:51
xG 0.47–0.25 (66%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Regehr – Voynov4:28
xG 0.25–0.23 (52%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSobotka – Tarasenko – Jaskin5:39
xG 0.36–0.12 (76%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Sobotka – Berglund – Tarasenko2:43
xG 0.23–0.11 (67%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Stewart – Berglund – Paajarvi4:44
xG 0.17–0.14 (56%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Roy – Reaves – Jaskin2:05
xG 0.03–0.03 (47%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLeopold – Polak7:31
xG 0.28–0.04 (87%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Jackman – Shattenkirk5:36
xG 0.21–0.13 (62%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Jackman – Polak3:19
xG 0.09–0.13 (42%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).