Thu, Jan 16, 2014·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Boston Bruins 4, Dallas Stars 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 06 | 118 | 317 | 441 |
| DAL | 011 | 012 | 211 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 19:56BOSDavid KrejciAssists: Milan Lucic · Snap, 0.16 xG1–0
- P3 1:18DALErik ColePPAssists: Tyler Seguin, Alex Goligoski · Deflected, 0.17 xG1–1
- P3 3:18BOSBrad MarchandAssists: Patrice Bergeron · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–1
- P3 15:46BOSMilan LucicPPGWGAssists: David Krejci, Torey Krug · Tip-in, 0.01 xG3–1
- P3 18:49DALJamie BennAssists: Tyler Seguin, Kevin Connauton · Tip-in, 0.09 xG3–2
- P3 19:44BOSPatrice BergeronENAssists: Gregory Campbell, Reilly Smith · Wrist, 0.62 xG4–2
Penalties (14)
- P1 3:31DALShawn Horcoff: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:40BOSTorey Krug: Holding2 min
- P1 18:09BOSZdeno Chara: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:09DALVernon Fiddler: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:09BOSAdam McQuaid: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:24BOSShawn Thornton: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 9:55DALShawn Horcoff: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:55BOSAdam McQuaid: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:52BOSJohnny Boychuk: Delaying game2 min
- P3 0:39BOSTorey Krug: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 6:05DALAlex Goligoski: Interference2 min
- P3 12:27BOSAdam McQuaid: Interference2 min
- P3 14:32DALRay Whitney: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 16:33DALKevin Connauton: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Seguin won the faceoff against Krejci
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestIginla – Krejci – Lucic9:04
xG 0.64–0.12 (84%)attempts 19–7goals 1–0
- Eriksson – Soderberg – Spooner7:27
xG 0.51–0.08 (87%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Thornton – Campbell – Paille7:59
xG 0.59–0.19 (76%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Smith8:39
xG 0.64–0.30 (68%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcQuaid – Bartkowski6:34
xG 0.67–0.03 (95%)attempts 15–4goals 0–0
- McQuaid – Krug5:33
xG 0.42–0.11 (79%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Miller – Krug2:20
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestCole – Benn – Seguin5:08
xG 0.21–0.06 (78%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Whitney – Fiddler – Chiasson3:01
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Benn – Chiasson – Seguin2:05
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Benn – Seguin – Nichushkin3:15
xG 0.01–0.07 (17%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Gonchar – Daley2:00
xG 0.03–0.27 (10%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Gonchar – Connauton11:09
xG 0.17–0.46 (27%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Daley – Goligoski13:20
xG 0.47–0.92 (34%)attempts 15–16goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).