Thu, Jan 16, 2014·Pepsi Center, Denver
New Jersey Devils 1, Colorado Avalanche 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 09 | 02 | 118 | 05 | 0 | 134 |
| COL | 110 | 013 | 010 | 05 | 2 | 238 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:55COLRyan O'ReillyAssists: Patrick Bordeleau, Brad Malone · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
- P3 8:59NJDReid BoucherAssists: Andrei Loktionov, Jon Merrill · Deflected, 0.07 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. COL Matt Duchene scored
- 2. NJD Patrik Elias stopped
- 3. COL Nathan MacKinnon stopped
- 4. NJD Adam Henrique stopped
- 5. COL Ryan O'Reilly scored
Penalties (5)
- P1 12:20NJDPatrik Elias: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:03COLMarc-Andre Cliche: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:27NJDEric Gelinas: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:42NJDAndrei Loktionov: Slashing2 min
- P3 2:51COLRyan Wilson: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Henrique
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestJagr – Zubrus – Zajac7:10
xG 0.76–0.08 (91%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Jagr – Elias – Zajac5:04
xG 0.52–0.18 (75%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Gionta – Carter – Loktionov4:16
xG 0.35–0.26 (57%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Bernier – Gionta – Carter3:42
xG 0.08–0.03 (75%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFayne – Greene14:27
xG 1.37–0.51 (73%)attempts 17–11goals 0–0
- Zidlicky – Gelinas2:27
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Gelinas – Merrill11:16
xG 0.66–0.62 (52%)attempts 8–16goals 1–1
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- Bordeleau – Cliche – Malone3:11
xG 0.01–0.07 (14%)attempts 2–1goals 0–1
- Mitchell – Landeskog – MacKinnon12:02
xG 0.40–0.49 (45%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- McGinn – O'Reilly – Duchene15:46
xG 0.58–1.03 (36%)attempts 15–13goals 0–0
- Talbot – McLeod – Cliche9:52
xG 0.16–0.63 (20%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Wilson – Barrie11:31
xG 0.61–0.73 (46%)attempts 16–13goals 1–1
- Benoit – Holden14:01
xG 0.22–0.36 (37%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Hejda – Johnson15:07
xG 0.28–1.18 (19%)attempts 8–18goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).